Rainy Undas seen; Leon may become Super Typhoon

MANILA, Philippines — Severe Tropical Storm Leon is expected to bring stormy weather during the observance of All Saints’ and All Souls’ Days this week, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Leon (international name Kong-Rey) and its trough will be the dominant weather systems that will affect the entire archipelago during Undas, said PAGASA Weather Division officer-in-charge Christopher Perez.

On Wednesday and Thursday, stormy weather will be experienced over Cagayan Valley and Apayao, Perez said.

Ilocos Region, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Aurora, Quezon and portions of Bicol and Samar will see rains with gusty winds.

Cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains will be experienced over Antique, Occidental Mindoro and Cavite.

Metro Manila, the rest of the Bicol Region, the rest of Central Luzon, the rest of Calabarzon, the rest of Mimaropa, the rest of Western Visayas, Negros Island Region and the Zamboanga Peninsula will have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms.

The rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with isolated rains or thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.

On Friday, Occidental Mindoro will experience scattered to widespread rains while Metro Manila, Ilocos region, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, the rest of Mimaropa, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Apayao, Babuyan Islands and Batanes will have cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms.

On Saturday, Occidental Mindoro and Palawan will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy.

Leon may become Super Typhoon

Meanwhile, Leon is expected to intensify into a typhoon in the next 24 hours, PAGASA said.

State weather forecasters are not discounting the possibility of raising tropical cyclone wind signal No. 5 if Leon develops into a super typhoon.

Leon will affect Northern Luzon and its impact may be felt during All Saints’ Day, PAGASA administrator Nathaniel Servando said at a press conference.

Leon is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday. Its impact in Metro Manila is projected to be minimal.

“Based on our forecast track, Leon will develop into a typhoon category but we are not ruling out the possibility of a super typhoon,” Perez said.

Leon may intensify into a super typhoon on Oct. 30 or 31, Perez said.

Signal No. 5 means maximum sustained winds will be more than 185 kilometers per hour, he noted.

As of 4 p.m. yesterday, Leon’s center was located 725 km east of Echague, Isabela.

Signal No. 1 was hoisted over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao; the northern portion of Benguet; Ilocos Norte; Ilocos Sur; La Union; Aurora; the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands; Camarines Norte; the eastern portion of Camarines Sur; Catanduanes; the eastern portion of Albay and the northeastern portion of Sorsogon.

Heavy to intense rains are expected today in Occidental Mindoro, Cagayan, Batanes and Babuyan Islands.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Negros Occidental, Aklan, Cavite and Palawan.

Heavy to intense rains are expected tomorrow in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Occidental Mindoro and Cavite. Moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ilocos region, Antique, Palawan, Zambales, Bataan and Batangas.

“After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, Leon will then turn to the northeast toward the East China Sea and exit the Philippine area of responsibility on Friday morning or afternoon,” PAGASA said.

Six cyclones

Six more cyclones are expected until yearend.

“Based on our estimate, we expect at least two to eight tropical cyclones (in the fourth quarter of the year). Since we already have two (cyclones) this October, we expect up to a maximum of six tropical cyclones before the end of the year,” Perez said.

The country’s experience at the height of Kristine was a normal occurrence, Perez noted. Kristine devastated Bicol and Calabarzon despite its landfall in Isabela.

“The thick clouds at the height of Kristine were located in the western portion. Even though its center had yet to approach the landmass of the country, there were areas that already experienced rains,” he said.

Cyclones in the second half of the year are stronger compared to cyclones in the first half, Perez said.