DOST-PAGASA: Don’t ignore ‘weak’ La Niña

MANILA, Philippines — While the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration has forecast a weak or even borderline La Niña phenomenon over the country starting this month up to May next year, there should be readiness for strong typhoons that a “weak version of this weather phenomenon could bring,” the DOST-PAGASA said.

Ana Liza Solis, chief of the climate monitoring and prediction section of the DOST-PAGASA climatology and agrometeorology division, stressed that they have historical data showing that previous years where the country experienced a “weak” La Niña had also seen several strong typhoons ravaging the country.

“We have to emphasize that historically, based on the data of PAGASA when there was weak La Niña, we had been hit with more super typhoons in the months of September, October, November and December,” Solis said yesterday at a media forum in Quezon City.

She said there were two conditions experienced during these supposed weak La Niña years, borderline La Niña and three to four super typhoons battering the country.

“Historically, it happened. That means we should not make light of the weak La Niña,” Solis said, explaining that the conditions brought by the weak La Niña also brings with it favorable conditions for the buildup of super typhoons in areas off the Pacific Ocean.

Joan Mae Adelino, DOST-PAGASA weather specialist, in her presentation on their La Niña Alert or the latest ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Alert System Status, said they have placed a 71 percent chance of La Niña forming in a three-month period starting this September up to November that will likely persist until the first quarter of 2025 or January up to March next year.

The rainfall probability forecast leaned towards above normal rainfall during the forecast period.

“With these model probabilities, borderline La Niña or La Niña-like conditions will be likely during the forecast period,” the PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status update said.

Adelino said their forecast for tropical cyclones during the forecast period placed the number from a minimum four to a maximum of 10 typhoons to hit the country from October 2024 to March 2025.

Solis and Adelino were among the resource persons presented by the DOST-Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research Development at a press briefing held at the B Hotel in Quezon City yesterday, to showcase technologies developed by the DOST to ensure resilience in the agriculture sector.