Below-normal rain still expected in most of Philippines this May

MANILA, Philippines — El Niño is likely to cause drought in 47 provinces in the Philippines by the end of May, as weather bureau PAGASA forecasts below-normal conditions for most of the country. 

In an advisory released on Wednesday, PAGASA said that El Niño continues to wane, but its impacts such as hotter and drier conditions still persist. The Philippines is experiencing exceptionally hot weather, triggering school closures and health warnings. 

“The rainfall forecast for the month suggests that below-normal rainfall conditions will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, while near-normal conditions are expected mostly in Mindanao and the northern portions of Luzon. However, the probability for below-normal conditions is still high,” the weather agency said. 

According to PAGASA, Spratly Islands, Abra, Batangas, Benguet, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Laguna, Masbate, Metro Manila, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, and Rizal could be grappling with meteorological drought by the end of the month. 

Drought could also affect Aklan, Antique, Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay.

Drought occurs when there is significantly below-normal rainfall conditions for three straight months.

Meanwhile, Marinduque, Quezon province, Romblon, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte could experience dry spell, defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions. 

Dry conditions, or two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions, could affect Albay, Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Quirino, Tarlac and Zambales. 

PAGASA added that “slightly below-average to warmer-than-average surface air temperatures are expected across the country:

• Metro Manila: 23.0°C to 38.3°C
• Mountainous areas of Luzon: 15.2°C to 29.0°C
• Rest of Luzon: 19.0°C to 40.8°C
• Visayas: 21.4°C to 37.5°C
• Mountainous areas of Mindanao: 16.1°C to 36.3°C
• Rest of Mindanao: 21.4°C to 38.3°C

The weather bureau said the easterlies, high pressure areas, localized thunderstorms, intertropical convergence zone, low pressure areas, and up to two tropical cyclones may affect the country this month. 

A transition toward the southwest monsoon may also happen in May. 

PAGASA said that La Niña, a cooling climate pattern, has a 60% chance of developing from June to August. — Gaea Katreena Cabico