New cyclone to enter PAR this week; 'Goring' keeps strength

MANILA, Philippines — A tropical cyclone may enter the country’s area of responsibility this week as Typhoon Goring (international name: Saola) moved north over the Philippine Sea, the state weather bureau said Monday. 

The tropical storm with international name Haikui was last spotted 2,205 kilometers to the east of Northern Luzon, with peak winds of 65 km per hour near the center and gusts of up to 80 kph. 

PAGASA said the cyclone may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. Once inside the PAR, it will be called “Hanna”—the country’s eighth cyclone this year. 

It may become a typhoon before it enters the PAR region. 

The potential Hanna is “less likely to directly affect the country,” but it may enhance the southwest monsoon beginning on Wednesday or Thursday. This may result in the continuation of occasional or monsoon rains over the western portion of Luzon and Visayas throughout this week.  

Goring keeps strength

Goring maintained its peak winds of 155 kph near the center and gusts of up to 190 kph. It was last seen 269 km to the east of Tuguegarao City in Cagayan. 

Wind Signal No. 1 remains hoisted over the following areas:

• Batanes
• Northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala) including Babuyan Islands
• Eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)

Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible in any of these areas.

What to expect

Goring is forecast to maintain its strength in the next 24 hours, then gradually intensify before passing close to the Batanes area between Wednesday morning and evening. A landfall scenario is not ruled out.

Up to 100 millimeters or nearly four inches of rain is forecast to fall along Babuyan Island and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan until Tuesday afternoon.

Goring will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon, which will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon and Visayas in the next three days.

The enhanced southwest monsoon will also continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas that are not under any wind signal: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.

Goring will exit PAR on Thursday. 

Forecast position

• August 29, 2023 02:00 AM - 295 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
• August 29, 2023 02:00 PM - 210 km east Southeast of Basco, Batanes
• August 30, 2023 02:00 AM - 80 km east Northeast of Basco, Batanes
• August 30, 2023 02:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Itbayat, Batanes
• August 31, 2023 02:00 AM - 170 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• August 31, 2023 02:00 PM - 295 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (outside PAR)
• September 1, 2023 02:00 PM - 440 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (outside PAR)
• September 2, 2023 02:00 PM - 600 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Guangdong, China (outside PAR)