MANILA, Philippines — Former agriculture secretary Leonardo Montemayor yesterday warned of a looming shortage of rice if the needed volume of grains will not arrive before the next harvest in October.
Montemayor said at present, the country’s rice inventory was only at 39 days.
“The stock is very thin before the main harvest in October, so the shortage will happen if there is a gap between the demand and the actual supply,” he said.
Montemayor also described as desperation on the part of government its request for India to supply rice to the Philippines due to “humanitarian” consideration, and that even the commitment of India and Vietnam to supply rice between 300,000 metric tons and 500,000 MT is still not assurance that imported rice will come in.
“Maybe the idea is to help the private sector who want to import more. There were many statements issued recently, that there was assurance from India and Vietnam to sell rice $40 cheaper but this is just word. They are on the negotiation stage,” Montemayor noted.
He said even though the promised 500,000 metric tons of rice will arrive, the country is still short of at least 500,000 MT.
“Our estimate is that we need a minimum of 700,000 to one million metric tons of rice,” he added.
He said even though the supply of rice will last through August, there is a big possibility of a shortage in September until the start of the main harvest in October 2023.
According to Montemayor, while the government does not want the public to panic, the Department of Agriculture (DA) should provide President Marcos with a realistic projection on the rice supply.
“They say at the end of the year, we will have a carryover stock of 52 days, it can be true but the critical is now until September. The other issue is the limited carryover stock, the 52 days is still low. If that is the case, what we are experiencing right now will happen again, especially with El Niño expected in the first quarter of 2024,” he said.
At the same time, Montemayor backed the observation that the high retail prices of the grains are comparable with the rice crisis during the incumbency of former president Rodrigo Duterte.
“At the very least, it (spike in rice prices) is comparable to 2016 and it is worsening,” Montemayor noted.
Based on monitoring in Metro Manila markets, the lowest retail price of rice was at P49 per kilo and the highest was at P65 per kilo.
Montemayor also contradicted the figures of the DA that based on its monitoring, the public can still buy rice at P38 per kilo.
“The actual situation can be seen in the markets, grocery, not the statements of the DA,” he said.