'Weak' El Niño starts in tropical Pacific, may strengthen in next months — PAGASA
MANILA, Philippines — State weather bureau PAGASA announced Tuesday that El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific, which can affect the country’s water resources, crops, and the health of people.
This development prompted PAGASA to issue its first El Niño advisory.
“El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2024, showing signs of strengthening in the coming months,” Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said in a briefing.
“This means that we are currently experiencing a weak El Niño, but there are models showing a high probability that El Niño may become moderate to strong during the last quarter of the year,” Solis added.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could result in dry spells and droughts in some areas of the Philippines.
By the end of the year, 36 provinces may experience dry spell and two provinces—Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte—may experience drought, according to PAGASA.
State meteorologists, however, noted that enhanced southwest monsoon may still be expected, which may result in above-normal rainfall conditions over the western parts of the country.
At least 10 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the country until December.
PAGASA urged government agencies and the public to take precautionary measures such as conserving water. In April, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. ordered the creation of a team to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of El Niño.
The World Meteorological Organization earlier warned the development of El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.
El Niño last occurred in 2018 and 2019, and takes place every two to seven years on average.
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