Phivolcs: No Pinatubo-like eruption for Mayon

MANILA, Philippines — While Mayon Volcano in Albay is expected to continue exhibiting heightened activity, the likelihood of a violent eruption similar to that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is minimal, one of the country’s leading volcanologists said yesterday.

Paul Alanis, of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs)’s Mayon Volcano Observatory, said the current activity observed from the volcano – including the glow from its crater, which is visible to the naked eye – does not even warrant raising the alert level from 3 to 4.

“We monitored (a) new lava dome from Mayon Volcano. For the past 24 hours, we recorded one volcanic earthquake and 177 rockfall events from the lava dome,” Alanis said, noting observations since Saturday night.

He said fresh magma was pushing the old lava dome now clogging the summit crater and triggering the emission of higher volumes of sulfur dioxide than the baseline measurement.

In terms of eruption patterns, Alanis said that the eruption of Mayon Volcano is frequent compared to Mount Pinatubo in Zambales.

“Based on history, there was no violent eruption of Mayon Volcano. In fact, the perfect cone of the volcano can be attributed to its frequent eruption. Mount Pinatubo seldom erupts,” he said.

He added that based on Mt. Mayon’s current behavior, there is no need to escalate its status from the current Alert Level 3.

“Based on the historical eruption of Mayon Volcano, its activities will persist for more days,” Alanis said.

The Phivolcs reported that rockfall events have caused lava debris to accumulate within 700 meters of the summit crater, resulting in thin ash and steam-laden plumes drifting toward the southeast.

The emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) was measured at an average of 1,205 tons per day, and the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents was also recorded.

“The above-based line of SO2 emission and the continuing rockfall events indicate that the old and the fresh volcanic materials are now being pushed outside the mouth of Mayon,” Alanis told The STAR.

Authorities are advising increased vigilance against hazards such as pyroclastic density currents, lahar and sediment-laden streamflows, especially during heavy rainfall, which can generate lahar in channels where volcanic deposits have accumulated.

Phivolcs emphasized the importance of caution to civil aviation authorities, urging them to instruct pilots to avoid flying near the summit of the volcano due to the potential hazards of ash from a sudden eruption.

The prevailing wind pattern indicates that ashfall events are more likely to occur on the volcano’s southern side.

Since February 2023, inflation has been observed on the upper slopes of Mayon Volcano, according to Phivolcs.

Evacuation efforts

Meanwhile, a total of 2,996 families or 10,582 people have been moved out of the six-kilometer permanent danger zone (PDZ) of Mayon.

Eugene Escobar, officer-in-charge of the Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office, gave a rundown of those evacuated from the danger areas: 900 families (3,209 persons) in Malilipot; 707 families (2,256 persons) in Camalig; 496 families (1,730 persons) in Guinobatan; 458 families (1,797 persons) in Daraga, and 378 families or 1,372 persons) in Tabaco City.

Escobar said these numbers could increase should authorities expand the danger zone beyond the six-km PDZ.

Yesterday, Malacañang reiterated its appeal to residents in Bicol to cooperate with local governments as agencies brace for a possible eruption of the volcano.

In a Facebook post in Filipino, the Presidential Communications Office said: “Our countrymen from Bicol are reminded to follow the local governments undertaking evacuation efforts to ensure their safety.”

Since Saturday morning, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has deployed 800 personnel of the Police Regional Office 5 (PRO5) to help in any and all efforts to keep residents safe in case Mayon’s activity escalates.

Apart from assisting evacuation efforts, police are also manning the evacuation centers, said Col. Jean Fajardo, PNP spokesperson.

Earlier, the PRO5 activated the critical incident monitoring action team.

“This will be used to monitor and generate situational reports on the current condition of Mt. Mayon that is essential in taking steps in ensuring the safety of the Bicolanos,” she said.

Likewise, all the Deployable Response Group and Operational Control units of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Bicol District are on standby to assist in the evacuation of residents, and if needed, conduct search and rescue (SAR) operations.

“Right now, we are just focusing on the evacuation. But we are prepared for SAR, in case such is needed,” said Commodore Genito Basilio, PCG Bicol District commander, of the assistance being provided by the Coast Guard Legazpi Station in Albay.

Health warning

For its part, the Department of Health (DOH) is bracing for possible outbreaks of airborne and other diseases in evacuation centers housing thousands of residents affected by emissions from Mayon.

Health Secretary Ted Herbosa said he ordered the deployment of incident commander to closely monitor all health concerns in the evacuation centers.

“The DOH emphasizes the importance of protection against airborne illnesses such as measles, COVID-19, and flu,” Herbosa said at a virtual press briefing yesterday. “When there are many people in an evacuation center, there is a possibility of acquiring acute respiratory infections.”

Citing information he received, there are 18 evacuation centers where over 6,000 individuals or close to 2,000 families evacuated from nine areas are currently staying.

Herbosa said the evacuation centers are already crowded thus he ordered the deployment of additional tents to decongest them.

He advised those staying in evacuation centers to keep wearing face masks and to get vaccinated as additional protection from airborne diseases and infection.

Meanwhile, the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) said flights in the Bicol region remain normal with no reported cancellations.

CAAP spokesman Eric Apolonio said that as of 1 p.m. Sunday, flights of Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific, including its sister company Cebgo, landed and departed safely in their respective destinations. — Cet Dematera, Ralph Edwin Villanueva, Evelyn Macairan, Mayen Jaymalin, Alexis Romero, Rudy Santos