Monitored Chinese militia ships along ASEAN-India exercise route may be heading to Vietnam’s waters
MANILA, Philippines (Update 3, 4:50 p.m.) — Several Chinese maritime militia vessels were monitored to be heading to Vietnam’s waters as they accompanied a Chinese research ship, Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation said.
Earlier on Monday, the center said these Chinese maritime militia vessels changed course and were seen headed to the ASEAN and Indian ships conducting a joint maritime exercise. A final update on Monday afternoon (Manila time) said that the vessels may be accompanying a Chinese research ship that was on its way to Vietnam’s waters.
The developments happened as navies of the Philippines, Singapore, India, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were conducting the inaugural ASEAN-India Maritime Exercises (AIME), which started May 2 and ran until May 8.
What happened?
According to Ray Powell, project lead at Gordian Knot Center project Myoushu (South China Sea), the first batch of Chinese militia vessels changed course and steamed toward the group of AIME vessels at around 7 p.m. on Sunday evening.
“They’re not moving very fast and it remains to be seen if both formations will stay on course,” Powell, who served in the US Air Force, told Philstar.com in a message.
A separate group of three Chinese vessels left the area of Zamora Reef (Subi Reef) on Monday morning and were monitored headed towards the area where the vessels were conducting joint exercises.
UPDATE 2: About 3.5 hours ago, 3 additional #China maritime militia ships left Subi Reef & headed SW in the general direction of the #ASEAN-#India Maritime Exercise formation.
— Ray Powell (@GordianKnotRay) May 8, 2023
Meanwhile the 1st 5 militia ships are now ~145km from the AIME formation, still on an intercept course. https://t.co/34U08Znhdw pic.twitter.com/SJi7Gpa56z
In an update on Monday afternoon, Powell said Chinese militia vessels and warships of Vietnam, Brunei, and Thailand were seen 70 kilometers apart.
Ships of the Philippines, India and Indonesia can no longer be detected via the automatic identification systems.
"[I] also confirmed China survey/research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 10 is traveling with the five militia ships — [which] opens the possibility that a purpose of this voyage is to survey an area requiring extra security — perhaps in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone," Powell said, later adding that Vietnam's fisheries surveillance vessel Kiem Ngu 414 passed within 120 meters of the China militia ship Qiong Sansha Yu 0004.
UPDATE 5: #Vietnam Fisheries Surveillance vessel Kiem Ngu 414 has arrived and has passed within ~120m of the lead #China maritime militia ship, Qiong Sansha Yu 00004 -- VN clearly concerned about the presence of this PRC flotilla within their waters. https://t.co/B2wHWOPeBa pic.twitter.com/SCUqklgQAL
— Ray Powell (@GordianKnotRay) May 8, 2023
In a final update at around 4 p.m., Powell said the visible ASEAN ships have moved past China’s ships, while Brunei turned back. China’s Xiang Yang Hong 10 is still in Vietnam’s EEZ.
Was it directed toward the exercise?
Prior to the movement of Chinese vessels towards Vietnam’s EEZ, Powell speculated that “China is not happy with the fact that ASEAN is conducting exercise in what China considers to be its own waters.”
“I think it would be more of a message to tell the ASEAN nations and India that these are China’s waters and that they are going to keep an eye on them while they are here,” Powell told Philstar.com in a phone interview on Monday morning.
Beijing insists on sovereignty in South China Sea and areas within the so-called nine-dash line, which is a U-shaped mark stretching beyond China’s maritime entitlements as ruled by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016.
This also intrudes the Philippines’ exclusive economic economic zone and continental shelf as it goes within the 200 nautical mile-zone from Philippine shores.
Aside from the Philippines, China’s nine-dash line claim overlaps claims by Brunei, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
ASEAN foreign ministers previously promised to finalize SCS Code of Conduct with China, although the Department of Foreign Affairs said in December last year that the document is “still very far from concluding.”
“I’m pretty pessimistic on ever getting to a final code of conduct because China’s interests are so in opposition to the ASEAN nations’ interests,” Powell said.
Joint maritime exercises
The navies of Singapore and India are co-hosting the first AIME.
According to Singapore’s Ministry of Defense, the sea phase of the training will be conducted in “international waters along the transit route to the Philippines."
The exercise involves nine ships from the participating countries and six aircraft from India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
The Philippine Navy said that BRP Antonio Luna (FF151) is joining the exercise, along with a “140-strong” contingent.
The six-day inaugural maritime exercises have over 1,800 personnel joining from ASEAN member states and from India.
The first part of the exercise involves a shore phase at RSS Singapura at the Changi Naval Base. It is here that participants conducted exchanges in Visit, Board, Search and Seizure practices as well as exercises in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations.
Meanwhile, the sea phase involves helicopter cross-deck landings and maritime security, communication, and maneuvering exercises.
Participants are also expected to track simulated vessels of interest, following alerts from ASEAN International Liaison Officers at the Republic of Singapore Navy's Information Fusion Center through its real-time information sharing system.
Drills on the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea is also included in the sea phase of exercises, which allows countries to practice coordination and “reduce the likelihood of accidents or miscalculations.”
Editor’s note: Updates have been made throughout the story, following additional reporting from the Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation posted on Monday. The final version of the story has been updated to reflect the center’s latest update posted 4:30 p.m. (Manila time).
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