La Niña over; El Niño seen this year – PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — State weather forecasters have announced the end of La Niña with a transition to El Niño expected later this year.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday projected neutral conditions from March to June before the increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño afterwards.

La Niña, or the periodic cooling of the ocean surface temperatures, increases the likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions and can lead to adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods and landslides.

PAGASA said that even as La Niña has ended, its lag effect may still influence rainfall conditions in the coming months.

Meanwhile, El Niño is the warm phase in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which increases the likelihood of below-normal conditions that can cause dry spells and droughts in some areas in the country.

“La Niña (cold phase) has ended. Most of the climate models predict that ENSO neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) is favored from March through June this year with an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño (warm phase) thereafter,” PAGASA said in an advisory.

The weather agency said it expects a gradual shift of the wind system as the northeast monsoon weakens and the easterlies becomes predominant this month.

High- and low-pressure areas, localized thunderstorms and intertropical convergence zones can still occur as well as one tropical cyclone that will affect the country this month, PAGASA said.

It said it is monitoring a low-pressure area off the coast of Mindanao that would bring rain over some parts of the country.

The low-pressure area was monitored 400 kilometers east-northeast of Davao City or 285 km east of Hinatuan in Surigao del Sur as of 3 p.m. Wednesday.

The weather disturbance is bringing scattered rainshowers over Albay, Dinagat Islands, Eastern Visayas, Masbate, Sorsogon and Surigao del Norte.

Mindanao, the rest of the Visayas and Bicol may experience isolated rainshowers due to the low-pressure area and localized thunderstorms.

PAGASA warned of possible flash floods or landslides during moderate to at times heavy rains.

The northeast monsoon is still affecting Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon with light rain.