Philippines may import 3 million MT rice next year – FFF

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may need to import at least three million metric tons (MT) of rice next year due to looming shortage brought low production and higher food utilization.

In its projection, the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) said rice stocks will be in the negative – by 427,000 tons – by the third quarter next year.

It said rice stocks may increase by yearend, but only a “measly” 321,000 tons, which is good for only nine days.

“As early as July 2023, there will be upward pressure on prices, because the carryover stock from the first semester will be equivalent to only one month supply,” FFF chairman Leonardo Montemayor said.

The drop in rice stocks is due to the lower annual production of rice in 2022 and a similar level of rice output per semester next year, the farmers’ group said.

It also expects food utilization to grow by 1.3 percent next year, given the population growth of 1.3 percent.

With this, Montemayor said the country may need to import at least three million MT next year to address the shortage.

“We will need to import between three and 3.4 million tons of rice next year to end up with a 90-day carryover stock by end of 2023,” he said.

Earlier, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it expects the country to import more rice until mid-2023 due to lower projected production amid the high cost of fertilizers and the recent devastating impact of Super Typhoon Karding in Luzon in late September.

The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast the country to import 3.4 million MT of rice, higher than its previous forecast of 3.3 million MT.

Karding (Noru) hit the Philippines and destroyed rice crops ready for harvest in Central Luzon, particularly in Nueva Ecija, which is considered the country’s rice granary.

Meanwhile, soaring fertilizer prices continued to force farmers to significantly reduce application, thereby lowering yields by three percent.

This prompted the USDA to lower its projection on the country’s milled rice production from 12.411 million MT to 11.975 million MT in the July 2022 to June 2023 period.

As of Dec. 8, the country has imported 3.54 million MT of rice, up by 27.79 percent from the 2.77 million MT imported full-year 2021, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed.

In terms of sources, BPI data showed the country imported rice from China, India, Japan, Myanmar, Pakistan, Singapore, Spain, Thailand and Vietnam.

Vietnam remains to be the country’s top rice supplier, bagging the bulk of total volume at 2.96 million MT. It is followed by Myanmar and Thailand with 231,738.18 MT and 172,245.38 MT, respectively.