MANILA, Philippines — Though the percentage of COVID-19 tests coming out positive is still rising in select provinces around the country, the surge of cases in Metro Manila may peak sometime this week, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Monday.
In an interview aired over CNN Philippines, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that the National Capital Region's COVID-19 growth rate stood at 28% last week compared to 41% the previous week.
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"If the peak happens this week, it will be close to what we're saying right now, it could be in the neighborhood of around 1,000 or so cases, not really alarming," David said.
"Of course, the peak is not guaranteed to happen this week, it's just a possibility because we're seeing a slowing down of the growth rate. It has decreased already to 20 or so percent."
In a separate advisory, David said that the capital region's positivity rate as of July 16 was 12.6 percent, up from 10.9 percent as of July 9.
Positivity rates in select areas in the PH. NCR positivity rate as of July 16 was 12.6%, up from 10.9% as of July 9. Especially In provinces where positivity rates are very high (above 20%), the public is strongly advised to practice necessary caution to prevent Covid infection. pic.twitter.com/tVWwJPVFTD
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) July 18, 2022
OCTA concerned with longer wave
Guido added that the hospital utilization rate is also slowly climbing in Metro Manila but urged calm over the rising figure, which is still under low-risk classification.
"We don't think it will reach alarming levels, which would be 50%, but of course, it's something that we will continue to watch," he said.
David also said that the duration of the wave was another point of concern for the independent think tank, saying its patterns deviated from those of other countries.
"We might see a decrease in Metro Manila hopefully around this week or next week. Hopefully before August; the wave has already been prolonged, and it's lasting longer than the original projections," David also said, adding that initial projections were based on the experiences of other countries in Southeast Asia.
"We should be okay given that the peak might happen sooner rather than later."
Other provinces, though, may not be as lucky. Areas like Laguna, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Tarlac have already breached 22% positivity rate, which means over a fifth of all tests are coming out positive.
"There are many provinces which have a lower vaccine coverage, and hospital utilization is already getting a bit high...so definitely monitoring is still important. We probably don't need to change alert levels in NCR, but this may need to change in some areas," he said.