OCTA's projection: Metro Manila's daily COVID-19 cases may reach 500 by end-June
MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila might see 400 to 500 COVID-19 infections a day by the end of June if the increase in cases continues, OCTA Research said Tuesday.
According to OCTA Research fellow Guido David, the capital region’s reproduction rate—or the number of people a person positive for COVID-19 can infect—has risen to 1.59. Ideally, the reproductive number should be less than one.
The positivity rate in Metro Manila also increased to 2.7%, although the figure is still below the 5-percent threshold of the World Health Organization to indicate that the spread of the coronavirus is under control.
The seven-day average of COVID-19 infections also grew by 53% to 131 from 86.
“Our projection is 400 to 500 cases a day by the end of June. The increase in cases is accelerating because we only had 65 cases per day,” David said in an interview with state-owned broadcaster People’s Television.
He said the independent research group will recalibrate the projection once trends change.
While there were increases in other parameters, the healthcare utilization rate remains low, the OCTA fellow said.
David also projected that Metro Manila could be classified at moderate risk for virus spread by next week.
On Monday, the Department of Health said that the capital region could go back to a more stringent Alert Level 2 if the rise in cases leads to a significant increase in hospital admissions.
DOH recorded 1,682 additional infections from June 6 to 12, 30% higher than a week earlier. — Gaea Katreena Cabico
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