MANILA, Philippines — There is a "high chance" that the confirmed local transmission of the BA.2.12.1 Omicron sub-variant in parts of the country will eventually lead to an uptick in coronavirus cases, though the country is still protected by its vaccinated population, an infectious disease expert said Thursday.
This comes after the Department of Health confirmed Tuesday local transmission of the new Omicron sub-variant is happening in Metro Manila, Puerto Princesa City in Palawan, and Western Visayas.
Speaking at the Laging Handa briefing Thursday morning, Dr. Rontgene Solante, a member of the government's Vaccine Expert Panel said that the uptick could translate to up to as high as over 500 cases per day, especially in dense urban areas like the National Capital Region.
"There is a high chance that the cases will go up but I don't think it will affect our hospitalization rate... The virus is highly transmissible but for the general population, it may not cause more severe infections. What we're looking at is the more vulnerable populations; if there will be an uptick it will be among [them]," he said.
"We expect that cases will increase, especially in areas with low vaccination rate. It is important to note that the sublineage has a high transmissibility rate. Vulnerable are populations that have no vaccination at all."
On Wednesday, the Department of Health reported 103 new cases — below the OCTA Research Group's forecasted 170 — along with zero deaths and 345 recoveries.
According to the OCTA Research Group, there are still 2,241 active cases in the country, good for a 1.0% nationwide positivity rate.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that the new sub-variant is likely to be more transmissible, but its presence will not necessarily translate to a new wave in cases because of the number of vaccinated individuals in the country.
She also pointed out that there is still no evidence suggesting that BA.2.12.1 causes more severe disease.
But Solante on Thursday also cast fear over what he said was the waning immunity among Filipinos in general as the effects of vaccination wear off and more people have to get boosted. He added that lower testing numbers as of late may mean a less accurate picture of the overall situation.
"Even if you're vaccinated, that's another factor that will contribute also to the increase in the cases... there's more reason to believe that [the cases] can go up because of the superspreader events for the past days and weeks," he said.
Solante also asserted the importance of vaccination, particularly for the eligible population to get their boosters for additional protection, as well as general compliance with health protocols as the election season winds down.
"These months are critical because if there is community transmission then we will know for sure that cases will go up because of the sub-variant," he said in Filipino.
Second boosters for senior citizens and healthcare workers were recently approved by the government. Solante said that this was mainly because for this subset of the population, the protective effect against severe infection is stronger.
— Franco Luna with report from Gaea Katreena Cabico