MANILA, Philippines — Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late ousted dictator, not only maintained but expanded his sizable lead over his rivals in January, while clear second-place Vice President Leni Robredo saw her support among likely voters shrink, pre-election survey results from Pulse Asia Research suggest.
According to the survey results by Pulse Asia released to media Sunday afternoon, the former senator still has a solid hold on the lead in all geographic areas and socio-economic groupings and would be elected as the next Philippine president if the elections took place during the survey period.
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From holding 53% of support from "registered voters in their cities and municipalities" in December, Marcos in late January had 60% support from "likely voters."
On the other hand, Robredo's 20% of respondents in the last Pulse Asia survey in December shrunk down to just 16% for the month of January.
Pulse Asia observed, however, that the vice president posted double-digit voter preferences across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, with Mindanao being the sole exception at just 8% support.
Robredo's numbers in December were noted for their clear increases over the last surveys, indicating steady momentum.
Within the time period the survey's interviews were conducted, the Commission on Elections unanimously dismissed a petition to cancel the certificate of candidacy of former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. over his tax offense conviction.
In that same frame, Marcos refused to join other presidential candidates in the taped Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews because he claimed Soho was “biased” against him and his family.
Pulse Asia also noted that in one forum he did attend, Marcos said he has no plans to release his Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth or SALN to the public because he claimed it would only be "used for political attacks."
READ: Isko strategist says Marcos' numbers going down due to media no-shows
As in the last survey, Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno still had the highest second-choice voter preference or among voters whose first choice for the presidency decides to withdraw from the elections, notching 24% of second-choice votes.
But when it came to first-choice votes, Moreno was still tied with Sen. Manny Pacquiao with just 8% of the total vote. Sen. Panfilo Lacson was last among the top 5 candidates with just 4%.
Marcos' lead on his rivals was clear across all regions and all social classes. In both Metro Manila and Mindanao, he took more than half of voters with 61% and 64%, respectively.
Sara Duterte, Tito Sotto lead vice presidential race
In the vice-presidential race, Pulse Asia noted that Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte is the frontrunner in the May 2022 vice-presidential race while Senate President Vicente Sotto III posts the highest second-choice voting figure.
Surveys serve as a snapshot of public sentiment during the survey period and are hardly conclusive pictures of the actual election results later on. These have historically changed over time, but serve as guides for candidates and their campaign teams.
The national campaign period prescribed by the Commission on Elections is set to continue for 85 more days until the elections on May 9.
READ: Pulse Asia: Marcos clear leader, Robredo steadily improving
"A small majority of likely voters (53%) have a complete slate for the May 2022 senatorial election; 13 out of the 64 senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning, with Mr. Raffy Tulfo enjoying solo 1st place (66.1%)," Pulse Asia also said of the senatorial race.
"Most likely voters (62%) are aware of the party-list system; nine (9) party-list groups succeed in surpassing the 2.0% voter preference threshold needed to secure at least one (1) congressional seat."
For the nationwide survey, Pulse Asia interviewed 2,400 Filipino adults aged 18 years old and above and reported a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey also have a ± 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence level.
"Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data," the report read.
"In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort."
— with a report from Xave Gregorio