Isko strategist says Marcos' numbers going down due to media no-shows
MANILA, Philippines (Updated 4:23 p.m.) — Former Sen. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s refusal to attend media forums and debates will only see his numbers in the 2022 elections slowly erode as the 90-day campaign period wears on, the campaign strategist of Aksyon Demokratiko standard-bearer Isko Moreno said Thursday.
Speaking in an interview aired over ANC's "Headstart", Lito Banayo, Moreno's campaign strategist, said that Filipino voters see that compared to the son of the late ousted dictator, Moreno is not afraid to face his rivals nor the media to discuss his platform.
Banayo said that having clear and specific economic policies to address various issues plaguing the country is also working to Moreno's advantage.
"The messaging is one. As against our message, which is clear cut. We have proof of our achievement in the City of Manila, we can replicate it all over the country, and we have the platforms, the programs to show that it can be done," Banayo said.
"We did our homework, and for us it’s ‘tunay na solusyon and mabilis umaksyon.’ We do not dally and we are not afraid to face the media. That’s another thing," said Banayo.
Banayo said the numbers of Marcos Jr. are gradually on a downward trend precisely because he does not want to face the media nor his rivals.
He added that "his numbers are high because he was able to inveigle Inday Sara Duterte to join his tandem."
"That is not necessarily something that will be permanent. Numbers fluctuate in every campaign," he said, pointing to the dip in Duterte's 2016 numbers after he cursed the Pope as an example.
The political strategist said that "while it may be a prudent thing for Marcos Jr.’s campaign team to protect him at this point in time from committing gaffes" by insulating him from interviews and debates, it will not be tenable in the long run.
The reason I suppose his numbers are gradually going down is precisely that people do not like candidates who do not face their competitors, their opponents," Banayo said.
"It's a battle, and if you're running, you'll also be run after. Little by little that will erode," he added in Filipino.
Banayo is a seasoned campaign strategist who was directly involved in the successful run of President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016, the late President Noynoy Aquino in 2010, President Joseph Estrada in 1998 and the late President Cory Aquino in the February 1986 snap elections.
RELATED: Isko Moreno claims 'underdog' label in presidential race, says undeterred by poll rankings
Moreno's numbers slowly rising, campaign manager says
In a statement sent to media, Moreno's campaign team pointed to the result of a survey conducted by marketing agency and data research firm Tangere, which showed Moreno significantly increasing his numbers, in contrast to Marcos' declining numbers.
Based on the results of the non-commissioned survey conducted February 4-5, Moreno’s numbers boosted to 22.17%, a significant rise from 16.75% from Tangere’s January 18 survey. The January 3 run of the survey showed his numbers at 16.29%.
The Tangere surveys show a steady and consistent downward trend in the numbers of former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. – from a high of around 60% in January 3, to 58% on January 18, and now down to 54% in the latest poll – a six-point decrease in the same interval.
Moreno's campaign team cited Tangere which found that survey participants rated the 47-year-old Aksyon Demokratiko standard bearer as the best performing candidate during The Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews and the Kapisanan ng mga Brodkaster ng Pilipinas Presidential Forum.
In the January 22 Jessica Soho interviews, 65% said Mayor Isko stood out the most among the presidentiables, followed by Robredo at 20%.
Marcos was seen to have stood out among the presidential candidates in the one-on-one interview with 43%. Moreno was second with 39%.
The survey also found that 32% of Filipinos felt “disappointed” by Marcos Jr.’s no-show at the KBP-sponsored event.
Banayo on Thursday went as far as saying that according to the campaign team's internal monitoring, they were "a little bit ahead" of Vice President Leni Robredo.
"People want a continuity in certain aspects of Duterte, but a major improvement in the economy, in healthcare, in education and all the other minimum basic needs that they want," Banayo said.
"We are positioning ourselves in the middle because we feel that is what people want...We are not targeting the voters of Vice President Robredo. She will get 14-15 percent and that is her cap [and] the numbers of Bongbong Marcos are going down little by little."
In the latest Social Weather Stations surveys, the son of the late ousted dictator finished as the top choice for 53% of respondents, trailed by Vice President Leni Robredo at second with just 20%. Moreno was tied for third place with Sen. Manny Pacquiao after garnering just 8% overall votes.
The Manila chief is far from an underdog, however. Though he ranked third with just 8% voter support overall, he was also the leading "alternative" candidate for voters whose original first picks were to end up not pursuing their candidacy later on.
RELATED: Moderate positioning continues as 'populist' Moreno makes many promises but few plans
Marcos campaign: Banayo off the mark
In a statement later Thursday, lawyer Victor Rodriguez, Marcos' spokesperson, went on the defensive and hit what he said was Banayo's "remark that the common enemy of all the presidential candidates is Ferdinand Marcos."
“From where we sit, Lito Banayo is way off the mark. The common and biggest enemy is unemployment. Had he not been hateful, he could not have missed the site of the real enemies, which are unemployment at 6.5% and underemployment at 16.7% based on PSA November 2021 statistics," Rodriguez said.
While the lack of jobs for Filipinos in a global pandemic is indeed a pressing concern, Banayo's comments were meant to be a commentary on the state of the current election surveys and not a societal exegesis on the national situation in the Philippines.
Banayo was responding to a question by anchor Karen Davila about Moreno's chances in the 2022 elections. He said that Marcos was a "common enemy" due to his being the frontrunner in the elections.
"Marcos did nothing except talk about unity, purely motherhood. The Filipino people are not stupid. At a certain point in time, people will discern that. You say unity, but you are the most polarizing candidate in these elections," Banayo also said in the interview earlier that morning.
Analysts: Media no-shows damaging, but candidates should pounce too
Marcos chose not to participate in the two media-sponsored events aired by the top local network, GMA, and across the more than 300 KBP-member networks.
The only mainstream media-sponsored events he participated in as of this writing were in the one-on-one pre-recorded presidential interviews with talk-show host Boy Abunda and another one with Korina Sanchez. He has also appeared in shows with One PH and radio DZRH.
In an earlier interview with Philstar.com, Stratbase ADR Institute president and political analyst Dindo Manit said that one weakness of Moreno's campaign was his decision to present himself as an alternative to mainstream politicians in an attempt to appeal to supporters of President Rodrigo Duterte.
"[That] doesn’t mean you are opposition. He was higher than Marcos going into the filing...For me, maybe it’s time for Isko Moreno to distinguish himself from Marcos because Marcos is the one who took away the votes of President Duterte," he said over Zoom.
"You have to define yourself to the electorate, accept that your enemy is Marcos, extract votes from Marcos, and do it strategically."
Manhit also said that it could be time for all candidates as a whole to establish their opposition to the leading candidate in Marcos.
"What I've seen change this January is suddenly [the candidates] started raising issues, maybe not as strong yet, against Marcos. There was a time that they were focused on reacting to Duterte. If we're talking about the presidency, Marcos should be their focus, because Duterte is not a candidate," he said.
"So maybe we can just see more aggressiveness on their part to distinguish them from the leading candidate."
Political science professor Jean Franco of the University of the Philippines also said that the refusal to attend "is going to be the game plan of Marcos" given his sizable following on social media.
"Social media is really part of the overall strategy today. That's how it works, and that's why Bongbong Marcos can afford not to attend interviews, because on social media he controls the medium...It's scary, actually," she told Philstar.com in a phone call.
Franco said that this strategy wasn't clear until Marcos' refusal to attend the KBP forum.
"How else can you explain the fact that he didn't attend the KBP forum and how in-your-face it was that [attended] the Korina Sanchez show?...Years ago, that could not happen. No president could afford not to attend an invitation from the KBP." — with a report from Kristine Joy Patag
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