MANILA, Philippines — If the current downward trend keeps up, Metro Manila might see a return to its pre-Omicron surge numbers by the end of February, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Sunday.
In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that the actual numbers being reported have begun to fall well below the group's earlier projections in late January.
"Prospects look good for less than 500 in the NCR by V-Day, and perhaps pre-surge numbers by end of February," he said in a tweet late Saturday night.
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877 new cases today in the NCR, 11% of national numbers. Actuals are back below Jan 20 projections, which means prospects look good for less than 500 in the NCR by V-Day, and perhaps pre surge numbers by end of February pic.twitter.com/fWOd7SGEpS
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) February 5, 2022
On Saturday, Metro Manila made up just 877 of the 7,689 cases nationwide recorded by the Department of Health. Of which, Quezon City and Manila City topped localities once more with 171 and 136 cases, respectively.
The National Capital Region's cases were up and down to start the month of February, but David pointed out that "as we have noted, a high percentage of this is due to backlog."
David said that the new cases in the country of late "have been in line with projections," adding that he expects a further decrease in Sunday afternoon's tally "down to around 6 to 7,000."
The Calabarzon region is also now at moderate risk for the pathogen after Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon recorded negative growth rates in average new cases in the past week, OCTA said earlier.
However, other highly-urbanized cities in the Visayas remain at high-risk despite also observing downtrends across all statistical indicators.
After the capital region, Cebu, Negros Oriental, and Davao del Sur led provinces and regions with 600, 489, and 450 new COVID-19 cases, respectively.
RELATED: OCTA: Downward trends observed in Visayas but still generally high risk