OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 cases on downward trajectory; pattern 'becoming true'

MANILA, Philippines — The National Capital Region's new COVID-19 cases are on a downward trajectory in recent days with the recent decreasing pattern "becoming true," independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said. 

Per the Department of Health's daily case bulletin, of the 22,958 additional COVID-19 infections recorded Wednesday, 8,376 were from the National Capital Region. Six testing laboratories did not submit data to the DOH.

According to OCTA Research, Metro Manila's reproduction rate — or the number of people one positive COVID-19 case can infect on average — declined to just 1.79 from up to 4.24 throughout last week. 

"The last time the NCR had less than 10,000 cases in one day was exactly two weeks ago on January 5, when the surge was still accelerating," OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a tweet Wednesday evening. 

"The pattern is very similar to the South Africa experience of a rapid surge followed by a dramatic decrease in infections," David, a professor at the Institute of Mathematics UP Diliman, also said. 

NCR new cases on a downward trajectory as the reproduction number decreased to 1.79 and the weekly growth rate becomes negative at -10%. SA pattern becoming true. @dzrhnews @dzbb @allangatus @NewsRmn @News5PH @dwiz882 @ali_sotto @dzme_1530khz @DZAR1026 @RMMendozaMT @haydeesampang pic.twitter.com/6y3sirfWdW

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 19, 2022

OCTA added that both the daily new cases and the seven-day moving average are seeing a downtick, while the weekly growth rate has gone down by 10%. 

Outside Metro Manila, though, cases continue to accelerate day by day in other urbanized cities. 

“While growth rates have slowed in NCR Plus, they are still accelerating in many highly urbanized cities outside NCR Plus,” David said, pointing to the growth rates in cities such as Tacloban City (469%), Cebu City (378%), Davao City (305%), Iloilo City (281%) and Baguio City (269%).

Earlier, the research group said that it was still too early to conclude that the cases in the capital region were going down as the downtick could still be attributed to limited testing capacity. David on Wednesday evening said the "pattern [is] becoming true."

However, 43.5% of 62,531 samples on January 17 tested positive for COVID-19 in Wednesday's tally — still significantly above the 5% positivity rate threshold set by the World Health Organization before opening economies.

"While this is encouraging news, it must be emphasized that NCR remains at critical risk as the [average daily attack rate] and the positivity rate are still above critical levels," David was careful to point out. 

"Residents are advised not to be complacent and still comply strictly with minimum public health standards so as not to prolong the surge of infections." 

Provinces with the most new cases on 1.19.22. Data was extracted from https://t.co/kM89DgrHW7. Any discrepancies in data due to error, reporting lag etc. should be addressed to DOH. @dzbb @allangatus @News5PH @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @dwiz882 @ali_sotto pic.twitter.com/F26ahnEHgD

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 19, 2022

— Franco Luna with a report from Gaea Katreena Cabico 

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