OCTA: Virus growth rate ‘accelerating’ in cities outside 'NCR Plus'

MANILA, Philippines — The growth rate of COVID-19 cases slowed down in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, but the spread of the virus continued to accelerate in other highly urbanized cities, OCTA Research said.

“While growth rates have slowed in NCR Plus, they are still accelerating in many highly urbanized cities outside NCR Plus,” OCTA Research fellow David said, referring to Metro Manila and neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal and Laguna.

According to David, the capital region recorded a 10% growth rate of cases from January 12 to 18. Metro Manila’s reproduction rate—or the number of people an individual positive for COVID-19 can infect—was at 2.07.

Based on OCTA Research’s data, the cities with the highest growth rates from January 12 to 18 were Tacloban City (469%), Cebu City (378%), Davao City (305%), Iloilo City (281%) and Baguio City (269%).

HUCs all over the country showing new cases on Jan 18 (DOH data), 1-week growth rate, ADAR and reproduction number. While growth rates have slowed in NCR Plus, they are still accelerating in many HUCs outside NCR Plus. Reproduction no. in NCR at 2.07. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/DTA8UlPUiF

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 18, 2022

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Tuesday that the Philippines remained at critical risk from COVID-19 even if the increase in cases was slowing down.

OCTA’s David also reported that the downward trend in the City of Manila is “now clear.”

The seven-day average of new cases in the capital city decreased by 23% from 2,152 to 1,658, and the reproduction number also went down to 1.5.

“Apart from Manila, San Juan and Malabon also had negative one week growth rates. NCR residents must continue to remain vigilant in following public health guidelines to sustain the trends,” David said.

Daily cases in the Philippines have reached record highs in January as an Omicron-driven surge in infections rips through Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.

The Department of Health reported Tuesday 28,471 additional infections. There are currently 284,458 active cases.