COVID-19 positivity rate may breach April 2021 levels in coming days — OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila's positivity rate, which refers to the percentage of coronavirus infections based on the total tests conducted, may eclipse its highest point from April 2021 when the capital region was under enhanced community quarantine, independent pandemic monitor the OCTA Research Group said Sunday.
In a statement, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that the reproduction number in the National Capital Region had increased to 4.05, while the seven-day average in new cases had increased from 90 to 962 in the past week, good for a 969 percent increase. Reproduction number refers to the number of people one positive patient can infect.
"I now expect the same range of new cases as yesterday. Possibly 3500 to 4000 in PH and 2500 to 3000 in NCR. Please wear your masks," David said after the latest DOH tally recorded 3,617 cases out of 29,239 tests.
The 14.8 percent positivity rate breached the benchmark of 5 percent set by the World Health Organization for opening economies, prompting the Palace to place the NCR under Alert Level 3 from January 3 to 15.
"I expect lower numbers, less than 2,000 per day, for January 2 to 3, based on lower testing volume...The peak positivity rate in the NCR was 30% on April 2, 2021. It looks likely we will surpass that by January 2, 2022," David also said.
David also said that the number of occupied hospital beds for COVID-19 patients in Metro Manila increased by 41 percent in the space of a week from 1,381 on December 24 to 1,942 on December 31.
"Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR is now at 23% while ICU occupancy is at 25%, still below the 70% critical threshold," he said.
Of the total cases, 2,530 were tallied in the National Capital Region. The localities of Manila, Quezon, and Makati led Metro Manila's cities with 843, 417, and 177 cases, respectively.
Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan followed the capital region with 259, 163 and 114 new cases on Saturday afternoon.
Per data from the Philippine National Police, though, only one area under the Manila Police District was listed as being under granular lockdown. — Franco Luna
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