Virus reproduction rate down in Metro Manila, but cases still seen to go up — OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research on Thursday said Metro Manila's virus reproduction rate has gone down, but an increase in new cases is still seen to persist at a slower pace. 

The independent pandemic monitor said the capital region's reproduction rate stood at 1.39 from the week of August 26 to September 1. 

That figure refers to the number of persons a positive individual can infect, which OCTA said is below the critical level of 1.4 

"Based on current trends, it is possible that the reproduction number in NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September," experts noted. "Until then, we should expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate."

OCTA added NCR's new cases per day in the said week at 4,637 were up by 12% in the week before that. 

Its average daily attack rate, meanwhile, was at 33.20. This refers to the number of cases in an area over a two-week period divided by the population there.

Pateros had the highest ADAR at 86.71, according to OCTA's monitoring. The lone municipality was followed by San Juan with 72.45, and Makati with 57.45. 

All cities in Metro Manila had critical ADARs, except for three which had high classification: Caloocan with 24.04, Quezon City with 22.99, and Marikina with 20.04. 

Experts added hospital bed occupancy in NCR was at 69%, and its ICU occupancy was at 71%.

Pateris and Navotas were at critical level in its hospital bed capacity at 100% and 87%, respectively. 

San Juan, Las Piñas and Marikina, meanwhile, have hit full capacity for its ICU beds intended for COVID-19 patients, while Muntinlupa was at 92%.

The government has shifted Metro Manila to modified enhanced community quarantine until September 7. Most restrictions from ECQ, however, have remained. 

New curbs were put in place as the country faces a new uptick in coronavirus cases, that experts suggested may be driven by the highly infectious Delta variant of COVID-19. 

Earlier this week, the World Health Organization declared the Delta is now the dominant variant in the country. — Christian Deiparine