OCTA sees new cases still rising this week

MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research expects new infections to continue rising this week, citing as basis the country’s number of new COVID-19 cases hitting a growth rate of 29 percent last week.

Based on current trends, the Philippines is now averaging 11,000 new cases per day, apparently due to the stronger and more aggressive Delta variant.

“The reproduction number in the Philippines was 1.46 for the period from Aug. 8 to 14. The one-week growth rate in new cases was 29 percent. It is very likely that new cases will continue to increase next week,” the research group said in the update it issued yesterday.

Metro Manila continues to post the highest number of new cases with an average of 3,066 new COVID infections daily.

OCTA fellow Guido David said the current reproduction number in the National Capital Region is at 1.90.

According to him, hospital bed occupancy in Metro Manila is at 64 percent while utilization of intensive care units reached 71 percent for the first time since May 5, 2021.

The group also listed the top 20 provinces with the most number of new cases from Aug. 8 to 14: the NCR, Cebu, Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan, Pampanga, Rizal, Misamis Oriental, Iloilo, Cagayan, Bukidnon, Davao del Sur, Ilocos Norte, Batangas, Aklan, Bataan, Pangasinan, South Cotabato, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija.

David said Misamis Oriental and Cagayan are both at critical level or above 85 percent in healthcare utilization while Cebu, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga and Batangas are at above 70 percent.

Ilocos Norte and Aklan provinces, where the one-week growth rates have already slowed, are still considered at critical risk levels in terms of Average Daily Attack Rate or ADAR, the group also said.

Their latest data also showed that seven provinces—Cebu (including the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue), Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga, Batangas, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan—were already above 70 percent in health care utilization.

Of the provinces, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan were experiencing above critical levels at greater than 85 percent occupancy.

Tarlac, on the hand, had the largest one-week growth rate (139 percent) after registering 105 new cases compared to the previous week’s 44 cases.