MANILA, Philippines — A pandemic monitor on Sunday flagged a "serious surge" in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila that it added suggests there is now community transmission of the Delta variant in the capital region.
OCTA Research in its August 1 report noted the 1,740 new infections here yesterday was the highest since May. That was when it was still under modified enhanced community quarantine.
Metro Manila saw a 40% increase in its seven-day average, or to 1,279. Its reproduction rate — or the number of persons a positive individual can infect — has climbed to 1.52 from 1.29 the previous week.
"The rapid growth rate suggests the possibility of community transmission of the Delta variant in the NCR," the independent panel of experts said.
Health officials have reported 216 infections from the highly transmissible Delta variant to date, along with eight deaths. Still, they maintained there is no community transmission yet.
As it stands, the Philippines in the last two days saw more than 8,000 new cases as government ordered stricter curbs due to the threat of the Delta variant.
OCTA in March this year also reported a "serious surge" in Metro Manila. By the end of that month, the region was returned to ECQ and cases skyrocketed to record-highs, leaving hospitals overwhelmed.
Experts said 13 cities are now considered high risk areas. They are: Pateros, Makati, San Juan, Malabon, Navotas, Las Piñas, Pasig, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, as well as Parañaque, Quezon City, Marikina and Caloocan.
They added there were 530 more hospital beds taken compared to the previous week, or the occupancy rate up to 45% from 38%.
ICU occupancy in the capital region was also up to 52% from 45%. OCTA fellows said should there be no changes in restrictions, hospital beds would hit 70% occupancy in less than five weeks, and ICU beds in less than three.
Metro Manila reverts to ECQ on August 6 until August 20, the second time it is placed under the said status this year.