MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research on Monday backed an extension of the general community quarantine for Metro Manila and nearby provinces in July, stressing that curbs should be kept to prevent a "rebound surge."
The independent panel of experts in its latest report noted a continued improvement in the capital region's COVID-19 picture.
It said daily new cases in Metro Manila was down by 9% in the last week, or from 731 to 667. This would mean an average daily attack rate of 4.83 per a 100,000 population, classifying it as a "moderate-low risk" area.
The virus's reproduction rate in the region has stood at 0.80, which refers to the number of persons a positive individual can infect. Its positivity rate also stayed at 7% over the past week.
On health care utilization, OCTA said 36% of total hospital beds in Metro Manila were occupied, 45% of beds in intensive care units were taken, and 32% of mechanical ventilators in use.
"NCR Plus would benefit from remaining under GCQ status for now," experts wrote in their June 28 monitoring, taking into account the said factors.
Metro Manila and Bulacan are under GCQ with some restrictions until end-June, while Cavite, Laguna and Rizal are under the same but with heightened curbs.
President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to announce new quarantine status for various areas in July this week. But his spokesperson, Harry Roque, said Metro Manila's classification would unlikely change.
OCTA added that measures should remain in effect to spare NCR Plus from another uptick in infections. Authorities began reporting over 8,000 new cases in end-March, with the highest in a day at 12,576 on April 3.
"We can do this by continuing initiatives to expand testing, tracing, and isolation," it said, "as well as by ensuring strict border controls to prevent the transmission of the virus within and among provinces."
Beyond the quarantine bubble, experts said they have seen a slowing down of increasing trends such as in Bacolod, Iloilo City, Cagayan de Oro, Baguio City, Tacloban, Tagum and Zamboanga City.
Hospital bed utilization rate, however, was at critical level or above 85% in Tacloban City in Leyte. The same was at high level or greater than 70% in Davao City, Iloilo City, Butuan, Cagayan de Oro, and Baguio City.
Areas with critical levels in ICU utilization rates were: Davao City, Iloilo City, General Santos, Koronadal, and Cabuyao, while it was at high in Bacolod, CDO, Baguio City, Tacloban, Tagum, Zamboanga, and Batangas City.
Health officials on Monday reported 5,604 additional coronavirus cases to bring the total to 1,403,588.
Active cases for the entire country are at 52,029, with deaths at 24,456, and recoveries at 1,327,103.