Experts urge vaccination for 50% population in NCR, 6 more high risk areas

MANILA, Philippines — The OCTA Research on Monday proposed that government vaccinate half of the population in Metro Manila and in six other areas deemed as high risk to meet herd containment for COVID-19.

Last week, the panel of experts explained that herd containment would mean the attack rate falling below 1 in 100,000, with 45 to 50% vaccinated. 

In its May 24 report, OCTA said the six more areas are: Tuguegarao, Santiago, Cainta, Imus, and Baguio and Cebu cities. It noted that these are places where the attack rate has been greater than 10 per 100,000 since the start of this year.

"This is the immediate target in high risk areas," experts said, adding that it would require inoculating 7.98 million individuals with 15.96 million doses.

OCTA added that vaccinating based solely on population and not considering the risk levels of provinces would only delay recovery for the country.

By May 22, officials said the country has administered over 4 million doses, with nearly 950,000 now fully vaccinated for COVID-19.

Inoculations have since reached a daily average of 162,513, more than two months into the effort to reach herd immunity.

Citing figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the panel said NCR, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Central Visayas and Western Visayas accounted for 82% of the nationwide economic losses last year.

Allocating vaccines per region, it said, should then start with the five, or NCR with 40 to 45%, Calabarzon with 15 to 20%, Central Luzon getting 10%, Central Visayas with 6% and Western Visayas with 4%.

Other areas in the country should get the remaining supply of the jabs, with priority still on local governments under the highest risk levels, experts added. 

"The primary consideration for optimal reallocation of vaccine resources is the limited global supply," OCTA said, while also recognizing another challenge in inoculations that is vaccine hesitancy.

Moderate-high risk areas, meanwhile, need to vaccinate 40% of its population, or requiring 7.3 million doses. Those in the moderate risk would have to get the jabs on 30% of its citizens using 3.08 million doses. 

On Monday, health officials reported 4,973 additional COVID-19 cases. The overall count is now at 1.18 million, with deaths nearing 20,000.

"The country cannot afford to wait another year to reach herd immunity," OCTA said.