MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may reach more than a million before the end of April, an independent research group said Monday, as the country continues to deal with a spike in infections that has swamped hospitals.
In its latest report, the OCTA Research Team said strict lockdown measures have been “effective in slowing down” the increase in number of new cases in Metro Manila. However, infections still rose by 20% with an average of 5,538 additional cases per day.
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OCTA Research also noted “rapid increases” in new COVID-19 cases in some cities in the capital region.
“Before the end of April, the Philippines is expected to have recorded more than 1,000,000 total COVID-19 cases,” the group said.
The Philippines reported 11,028 additional COVID-19 cases Sunday, taking the country’s caseload to more than 795,000, including over 13,400 deaths
In a public briefing Monday, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said new cases may still climb to 11,000 to 12,000 a day “for the next week or so until we see a downward trend.”
Decreases, increases
The reproduction number—or the number of people that one COVID-19 positive case can infect—decreased to 1.61 from 1.88 in the capital region, OCTA Research said.
The research group said lower one week growth rates were observed in Manila, Parañaque, Marikina and Navotas, while Pasay and Makati had downward trends. But there were rapid increases in Mandaluyong, Las Piñas and San Juan.
It added hospital bed occupancy and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 were above 70% for many cities in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna—dubbed as the “NCR Plus” bubble
“The addition of hospital beds and ICUs for COVID-19 has helped reduce hospital bed occupancy in some LGUs, but these will be filled up as soon as the NCR Plus is expected to have a high number of new COVID-19 cases during the month of April,” OCTA Research said.
But in a briefing Monday, the Department of Health said it is “too early” to say that the implementation of enhanced community quarantine in “NCR Plus” bubble slowed down the spread of COVID-19.
The national government has extended the lockdown in “NCR Plus” for another week.