Reduction of COVID-19 reproduction rate to 1 unlikely in 2 weeks — OCTA Research
MANILA, Philippines — The implementation of more stringent measures in Metro Manila and its surrounding provinces may not bring down the reproduction rate in the capital region to the recommended threshold within two weeks, the OCTA Research group said Tuesday.
The reproduction rate—or the number of people that one COVID-19 positive case can infect—is now at 2.1 in Metro Manila, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in an interview with CNN Philippines.
“If we want to reduce the number of cases, that means we have to reduce the reproduction number from 2.1 all the way down to 1. This cannot happen in two weeks, unfortunately,” David said.
The Philippine government announced stricter quarantine measures enforced in Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna or the “NCR Plus” bubble to stem the spread of the virus. From March 22 to April 4, travel to and from the bubble is not permitted unless deemed as essential.
The government also imposed unified curfew, banned mass gatherings, and suspended the operations of cinemas, arcades, museums, libraries, cultural sites and driving schools in these areas.
David said it took 28 days to reduce the reproduction number when the country experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases in August 2020.
“That could be like a best case scenario, it would take us maybe four weeks to start having a decrease in cases basing it on history,” the researcher said.
“I’m not saying it’s impossible but it seems very unlikely to happen to reverse it in two weeks,” he added.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Monday the public may start seeing the effects of the restrictions in three to four weeks.
The national government expects to reduce the number of new COVID-19 infections by at least 25% within the next two weeks.
The Philippines recorded Monday 8,019 additional COVID-19 cases, the highest single-day since the pandemic began, bringing the total caseload to 671,792. — Gaea Katreena Cabico
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