Metro Manila hospitals seen to reach full occupancy by April — OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila hospitals could hit 100% capacity by first week of April if the surge in region is not controlled, the OCTA Research has warned.
The independent panel of experts said the projection is based on the reproduction rate of 1.9 in Metro Manila, a rise in daily infections which it described as already "at a critical juncture."
"This indicates that on average, one COVID-19 positive person is infecting nearly two other persons," OCTA said in its March 20 forecast. "This explosive rise in cases in the capital region now threatens the integrity of our healthcare system."
It added that unless drastic and swift response are done by both national and local governments, facilities and health workers could be overwhelmed in just a matter of few weeks, "just around or after Easter."
The Philippines saw its most significant increases yet in new coronavirus cases in the last two days, when officials reported over 7,000 and nearly 8,000 additional infections.
Figures such as these are weeks' early into OCTA's forecast by end of March, a harrowing development that has since drawn mounting pressure on the Duterte administration even from lawmakers to respond to the situation.
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So far, the health department has urged the public to stay in their homes and forego any non-essential travel, as well as to wear face masks even at home when living with other persons, especially those vulnerable to the virus.
OCTA said its latest forecast did not take into account yet the spread of new COVID-19 variants such as the one detected in the United Kingdom and in South Africa, which have already been confirmed in Metro Manila.
"We assumed that patients are hospitalized seven days after onset of symptoms on average," the experts said. "Based on a Manila-based hospital's experience, we assumed that patients who die spend around 10 days in the hospital and that patients who survive are confined for 27 days."
Health workers' groups yesterday said the new surge is already taking a toll on medical personnel, with the Filipino Nurses United reporting that two of their members had already died recently.
Maristela Abenojar, FNU president, said this had showed government's poor pandemic response, with the country "undeniably facing a heightened public health disaster."
A united curfew in the capital region recently made its return along with more areas placed under localized lockdowns — curbs reminiscent of measures set last year in the early stages of the crisis that came anew, as government claimed its response had been "excellent" that many have since disputed.
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