MANILA, Philippines — An independent panel of experts warned on Tuesday that hospitals in Cebu City could reach critical level in the next two weeks if the rise in coronavirus cases are not curbed in its current transmission rate.
The OCTA Research group in its latest finding said the city is now averaging 130 new infections a day and its attack rate now at 11.11 which, per health department's guidelines, would classify it already as a high risk area.
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Such developments, which was first seen by the start of 2021, "continues to be a serious cause of concern" despite the situation there still at a manageable level of 40%.
"The main concern now in Cebu City, apart from the possibility of the UK B117 variant spreading in the area, is the state of the hospital utilization," they said.
Researchers added that at a reproduction rate of 1.4, there would be 240 more beds occupied in medical facilities in two to three weeks. "If this happens, it will increase hospital bed occupancy past the 70% critical level."
An increasing trend in cases had also been observed in Cebu City's neighboring areas, such as in Mandaue, where bed occupancy last week was at 40%, as well as in Lapu-Lapu with 57%.
For this, OCTA is urging the local officials of the said areas for a stricter carrying out of pandemic-related curbs.
Currently, Cebu City, Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu are among the most parts of the area under the least stringent type of quarantine, or the MGCQ, until end-February.
In mid-2020, the city was placed under the strictest quarantine classification due to the increase in cases, with the Duterte administration sending Environment chief Roy Cimatu to oversee the response there.
"In these areas, the LGUs should concentrate resources for testing, tracing, and isolation," experts said. "The concerned LGUs must also provide social support for the vulnerable and the poor who will be affected by the localized lockdowns."
Cebu City should also be ready "to consider moving to a stricter quarantine classification" if the surge in infections worsens to a point of threatening its health care system.
By February 8, the city has reported 2,218 active cases, the highest in Central Visayas, along with 706 deaths and 10,701 recoveries.
OCTA said authorities in the area are "now better prepared" to respond to the present rise in cases, but the possibility of the UK variant spreading "is a game changer which will require more aggressive interventions to suppress viral transmissions."
Philippine coronavirus infections reached 540,227 on February 9, as health officials reported 1,235 deaths.
The count remains the second highest in Southeast Asia, with fatalities now at 11,296 and recoveries nearing half a million at 499,764. — Christian Deiparine