OCTA Research: Coronavirus infections in the Philippines could reach 480K by yearend
MANILA, Philippines — Coronavirus infections may stay well below half a million by the end of 2020, the OCTA Research Group said Friday.
"Right now, actually, we are projected to reach the lower end of our projection, which is closer to 470,000. It looks like we’re going to reach something like 475,000 to 480,000 but that is with the current trajectory," University of the Philippines mathematics professor Guido David told ANC's “Headstart.”
The group, composed of academic experts from UP and the University of Santo Tomas and that presidential spokesperson Harry Roque warned against making recommendations in public, earlier projected that the number of cases in the country may reach between 470,000 and 500,000 by the end of the month.
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"If the situation worsens a little bit, we might get closer to 500,000. But right now, that is not the case," David said.
Earlier this month, he warned that overcrowding in public places may lead to a surge in cases, telling One News' "The Chiefs" that hitting the 500,000 mark would mean that the “curve is already unflattening and we’re starting on an upward trend” once more.
"We don’t have the full details yet because these are just indicators... but we would know more by next week if the uptick is continuing to grow. In that case, a surge or at least an uptick might happen in Metro Manila," he said Friday.
'Hard lockdown not necessary yet'
Despite their fears of a surge, considering what he characterized as the vastly improved situation in the captial region, Guido said the OCTA group would not be pushing for a hard lockdown just yet.
"We would not recommend a hard lockdown as of the moment because, these indicators, while they suggest an uptick or high hospital occupancy, but the situation right now in Metro Manila is the best it has been for like three months since early August."
"So, the situation has improved a lot [and] we're not yet at that state where we would need lockdown," he added.
Guido noted a surge in cases in Cagayan and Isabela, provinces severely hit and forced to declare a state of calamity due to the recent onslaught of typhoons, as well as the municipality of Mankayan in Benguet. He added that the OCTA group would be monitoring these areas to see if the surge in cases would continue.
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As of this writing, the national coronavirus caseload stands at 445,540 and deaths are at a grim 8,701. It has been 171 days since parts of the country was first placed under lockdown, marking the longest community quarantine period in the world.
— Bella Perez-Rubio
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