Holidays may bring uptick in COVID-19 cases – experts

MANILA, Philippines — An expert from the University of the Philippines warned against a possible resurgence of coronavirus cases during the Christmas season as more people may likely go out and mingle after months of strict quarantine measures.

Mathematics professor Guido David, of the OCTA Research group, said the government must be ready to immediately respond to an uptick of new cases to prevent a surge.

“We are aware that when the holiday season comes, people already have fatigue and would want to go out,” he said in Filipino in an interview with TeleRadyo.

“It is possible to have an uptick but what is important is for us to have an immediate response. So in case there is a small uptick of cases, we will be able to control it and it will not worsen and be a surge,” he added.

While the average number of new cases has consistently decreased in recent months, the OCTA Research group – composed of independent experts from UP, University of Santo Tomas and Providence College in the United States – repeatedly warned of a possible surge in new cases.

In its latest report released Tuesday, it stressed that the downward trends in the Philippines and Metro Manila can be easily reversed, citing current outbreaks in Europe and the United States.

It said this could also happen in the country if the government, private sector and the public become complacent and less vigilant in the fight against COVID-19.

“To sustain these positive trends will require ever more significant cooperation, collaboration and vigilance from all sectors of society,” read the report.

During the interview, David said they agree with the position of Metro Manila mayors to retain the general community quarantine (GQC) status in the region until the end of the year.

“If we will not implement GCQ, we will be out of control by December… We want to balance it a little to control the crowding in malls and public places,” he added.

He also cited the need to closely monitor areas that they identified as high risk, such as Makati and Malabon cities in Metro Manila; Baguio City, Itogon and Tuba in Benguet; and Lucena in Quezon.

Other areas identified by OCTA in its latest report as high risk areas are Iloilo City, Catarman in Northern Samar, and Pagadian City in Zamboanga Del Sur.

“We urge the local government units concerned to further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing and isolation to reverse the increase in transmissions in their communities,” it said.

“Furthermore, in the identified high-risk LGUs, the implementation of more aggressive and effective localized lockdowns with stricter border controls is urgently needed to suppress further viral transmissions,” added the group.

Throughout the country, OCTA urged the national and local governments to strictly monitor and enforce compliance with minimum health standards such as physical distancing, the wearing of face mask and face shields and proper hygiene.

Celebrate Christmaswith caution – DOH

Yesterday, the Department of Health (DOH) issued guidelines on how to safely celebrate the Christmas holidays.

“Of course we want to celebrate the holidays, but we have to celebrate it now safely,” DOH Health Promotion Bureau officer Rodley Carza said at a virtual briefing.

Carza said families can still hold social gatherings and activities provided that the number of people attending would be limited to as low a number as possible.

“Social and family gatherings must be kept with less people as possible,” he said, adding that virtual gatherings with family and friends who do not belong to the same household are recommended by the DOH.

“Preferably people within the same household will be attending the gathering and activities requiring travel to areas with higher quarantine classification shall be avoided,” Carza said.

This poses a minimum risk in acquiring the COVID-19 virus, based on the risk-classification of activities for the holidays issued by the DOH as a guide to the public.

“Outdoor small group gatherings where physical distancing is observed and guided by restriction on mass gathering is considered a medium risk,” Carza said.

Posing higher risk is the gathering of large groups of people in enclosed venues, especially when it involves risky activities such as singing, shouting and dancing.

Carza said social gatherings or corporate parties should now be limited to a small number of individuals and not exceed 50 people.

He stressed the need to observe minimum health protocols and to keep activities as short as possible. Cleanliness and proper ventilation of the venue must also be ensured, he said.

Participation of individuals vulnerable to infection must be limited and the sick should no longer attend social gatherings, he added.

The DOH also advised the public to attend the traditional Simbang Gabi and other religious activities online to lower the risk of acquiring the potentially deadly virus.

“Attending in person religious gatherings held indoor and enclosed with the number of participants exceeding the recommended limit poses higher risk; while attending mass in outdoor (areas) where physical distancing is observed poses medium risk,” Carza said.

The DOH suggested online shopping for holiday gifts because shopping in crowded malls also poses greater risk of acquiring the COVID-19 infection.

Carza advised the public to practice healthy eating, perform physical activities and avoid use of firecrackers.

The DOH, he said, is pushing for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent COVID-19 transmission.

COVID-19 caseload: 389,725

Yesterday, the country’s COVID-19 caseload rose to 389,725 with the addition of 1,594 new cases, while 42 more have added to the list of deaths.

The DOH also reported 468 additional recoveries that brought to 349,543 the total number of survivors, accounting for 89.7 percent of the total confirmed COVID cases nationwide.

Metro Manila posted the biggest number of new cases with 253, followed by Cavite with 126. Both Davao City and Rizal posted 78 new cases.

Active cases stand at 32,773, of which 93.1 percent are mild and asymptomatic, the DOH said.

Meanwhile, the relatively low number of new COVID-19 cases reported by the DOH is partly due to the recent typhoons which prevented a number of laboratories from fully operating.

“The decrease may still be observed over the next few days and may be followed by a relative increase in newly reported cases in the coming weeks,” the DOH said, citing how all testing laboratories have already resumed operations.