Experts see flattening of COVID-19 curve by September

MANILA, Philippines — The country is likely to see a flattening of the COVID-19 curve by the end of the month or September, a member of the research group of the University of the Philippines said yesterday.

In an interview with ABS-CBN Teleradyo, professor Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team said the coronavirus disease is “not yet out of control” but authorities and the public should remain on guard.

“Flattening does not mean it is over. It means there are still cases but the number of cases is on the decline. Flattening is a long process,” he said.

David pointed out that one week ago, they observed that the trend of ‘R naught’ was slowing down from 1.5 to 1.1. The team also observed that the number of new cases being documented was on the decline.

“This is a very good indication… I hope we can sustain this and flatten the cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Calabarzon,” he added.

R naught pertains to reproduction rate or the number of individuals that would contract the disease from an infected person.

He said they had projected that COVID-19 cases  would reach 250,000 this August had the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) not been reimposed in NCR and the provinces of Bulacan, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal.

But after the MECQ was loosened to general community quarantine, the team had expected to see some 230,000 cases this month.

“Slowly it (cases) is going down and not going up ... We do not expect to see the effects of the MECQ because there is a two-weeks lag,” he claimed.

David added it is now crucial to sustain the flattening of the curve by two weeks to one month so that cases would go down to a “very manageable level.”

He cautioned that if efforts are not sustained, cases may again surge.