No total lockdown; Duterte decides on ECQ tomorrow

MANILA, Philippines — With the end of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) just eight days away, expect no total lockdown to follow, presidential spokesman Harry Roque said yesterday.

He said a total lockdown was not among the preferred scenarios raised by health experts specifically former secretaries of the Department of Health (DOH) during their meeting with President Duterte on Monday.

Roque said health authorities have voiced preference for extending the current quarantine or having it “modified” or relaxed in some areas. 

Duterte is set to announce tomorrow the next step the government will take after the scheduled lifting of quarantine on April 30, according to Sen. Bong Go.

At Monday’s meeting, Roque said the President asked the health experts about different post-quarantine or “modified ECQ scenarios – like the possibility of a second wave of infection.”

Meanwhile, the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) said that based on reports from experts, the quarantine has resulted in a notable decline in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection rate from three days to five days.

“Actually, we are able to see, along with the private sector, that we have been able to slow down the infection rate of COVID-19. You can see that the rate of doubling is well… in some studies comparing the Philippines to other countries, we are between five to 10 days,” said Secretary to the Cabinet and IATF spokesman Karlo Nograles.

“Because some countries double (the infection rate) every three days, while other (countries) double between two days to three days. The Philippines is within the segment that its cases double every five to 10 days,” Nograles said at a virtual briefing yesterday.

“So, in terms of the slowdown of the infection rate of COVID-19, we are able to manage it. So that is one of the bases when we will look into, and which gives us more confidence on deciding our next steps, on what to do after April 30,” he said.

Nograles assured the public that the IATF and Malacañang have been working on an anti-COVID-19 strategy based on the guidelines issued by the World Health Organization.

He noted that the WHO has advised against total lifting of lockdown or community quarantine protocols.

The government has set the parameters for establishing epidemiological curve, rate of acceleration and rate of deceleration, among others. There is a need to ensure that public health capacities and systems are in place to identify, isolate, test, trace and quarantine affected individuals.

Gradual lifting gains support

Some House members have expressed support for a gradual lifting of quarantine in Luzon after April 30.

Reps. Stella Quimbo, Alfredo Garbin Jr., Mike Defensor and Dante Marcoleta said gradual lifting of the ECQ should start in provinces and communities with zero cases.

They said the government should allow economic activities in COVID-free areas to mitigate the impact of the lockdown on livelihood while still strictly implementing other measures.

In provinces that will remain under quarantine due to high number of COVID-19 cases, selected businesses should be allowed to resume with strict implementation of social distancing and face mask protocols.

Quimbo said this modified quarantine is needed to mitigate impact of the crisis on the economy.

The Marikina representative explained that the six-week quarantine is already providing the government and the public the experience needed to manage the risks.

Garbin agreed that companies engaged in manufacturing should be allowed to reopen and public transport restored, “but with restrictions as to its passenger capacity and restriction to travel.”

The AKO Bicol party-list representative said malls and schools should remain closed and public gatherings should still be prohibited.

Defensor, for his part, said infrastructure operations should be allowed to resume by May 1.

“Infrastructure or construction is a sector which may be allowed, considering the employment and multiplier effect to the economy,” the Anakalusugan party-list lawmaker said.

Marcoleta cited the need to strike a balance between containing the spread of the virus and restarting the economy.

“Our country, with its meager economy, has to bite the bullet and sooner will have to make the difficult choice between the need to stay healthy and the need to continue living,” Marcoleta, deputy speaker and SAGIP party-list representative, said.

For militant labor group Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU), an extension or modification of the quarantine would only burden workers even more.

“An extension or modification of the quarantine does not relieve, improve or ameliorate their families with the current system,” KMU chair Elmer Labog said.

Labog noted that the government has allocated billions of pesos, yet millions of workers and poor are still neglected.

“Of the P100 billion allotted to DSWD for 17.9 million families, only four million have been served as of April 18. The DOLE’s P4 billion has served only 237,653 formal sector workers, some 235,949 informal sector workers and 3,245 OFWs,” he pointed out.

He further claimed that the Small Business Wage Subsidy Program of the finance department for 3.4 million employees will only start payment in May. The P1 billion for micro, small and medium enterprises was already in the 2020 budget but was made to appear as part of the COVID response, he said.

“The rural poor, especially small farmers and fisherfolk, more than 50 million of them in Luzon alone, are complaining. More widespread landlessness even to agrarian reform beneficiaries is looming ahead,” Labog added.

Meanwhile, experts from the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team said several provinces may face serious shortages of hospital beds to accommodate COVID-19 patients.

They note that three provinces adjacent to Metro Manila – Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal – may face a serious shortage of hospital beds assuming a scenario that a COVID-19 patient infects two other people.

“Our simulations show that about 51,933 Filipinos will need hospitalization, approximately 13,194 of whom will need intensive care unit treatment,” read the team’s policy paper. – With Delon Porcalla, Edu Punay, Mayen Jaymalin, Janvic Mateo

Related video: