WHO: NCoV cases to peak this month

MANILA, Philippines — The spread of the novel coronavirus acute respiratory disease (2019 nCoV ARD) is expected to peak this month before it tapers off and is put under control, an official of the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

WHO representative to the Philippines Rabindra Abeyasinghe told an inquiry of the Senate committee on health on Tuesday that the rate of detected cases was increasing by about 10 percent a day.

What’s positive is that the mortality rate appears to be declining from three percent to two percent, Abeyasinghe told the panel chaired by Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go.

Globally, there have been over 24,300 laboratory-confirmed cases of nCoV infections with 490 deaths – almost all of them in China except for the Chinese man in Manila and one other male in Hong Kong.

“We just need to manage (the situation) now, and ensure that we reach the peak of transition, which, according to some independent experts and research institutions, the prediction is that they may be reached within the next 10 days,” Abeyasinghe told the Senate. 

“After that, we expect that the prevention and control measures that have been instituted in China and outside will result in a gradual decline of cases,” he said.

He noted that the WHO’s Emergency Committee declared last Jan. 31 that the nCoV outbreak can be controlled.   

A critical factor in attaining that is the countries’ ability to test for nCoV infections to determine the trajectory of the outbreak, he said.

Abeyasinghe said China’s capacity for testing of the virus has been “greatly enhanced and expanded” that it has confirmed infections in a significantly larger number of people with mild symptoms.

“And this is why we are seeing such an expansion of the number of people being reported as positive,” he said, adding that WHO welcomes this because being able to clearly identify those infected is critical to containing the outbreak.

Center for Disease Control

Meanwhile, an infectious disease expert from the University of the Philippines - Manila supports a proposal to create a Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that would handle outbreaks in the country.

Edsel Maurice Salvana, director of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology at UP Manila’s National Institutes of Health (NIH), said the need for a CDC arises in times of such outbreaks as the novel coronavirus.

Speaking at the Kapihan sa Manila Bay at Cafe Adriatico, Salvana said the Department of Health (DOH) does not enjoy the same powers as the CDCs in the United States which can mobilize the military and police in containing a disease outbreak.

“We need a body that has the military and police powers to arrest a person, who for instance, is resisting isolation,” he said, adding that in the US, CDC staff wear military uniforms.

“(The) CDC is a public health insitutiton that responds to oubreaks and epidemic and ensures public safety during these times. They are hard trained to carry out their difficult functions that some medical personal may not do,” he added.

Last Jan. 29, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda filed House Bill 6096 that seeks the creation of a Philippine CDC which will absorb the newly established Communicable Prevention Bureau, Disease Emergency Management Bureau and the Epidemiology Bureau and Research Institute for Tropical Medicine of the DOH.

Salvana said such a CDC must have its own “public health function, laboratory capabity and quarantine powers,” among others.  – With Sheila Crisostomo