Pulse Asia research director: ‘Duterte endorsement not key to victory in elections’

MANILA, Philippines — President Duterte’s endorsement of administration senatorial candidates will not ensure their victory, Pulse Asia research director Ana Maria Tabunda said.

In an interview with The Chiefs on Cignal TV’s One News on Wednesday night, Tabunda said elections in the country are personality-based.

She also stressed that there must be a connection between the endorser and the endorsee for it to translate to actual votes.

For instance, Tabunda said the connection of Duterte with former Philippine National Police chief Ronald dela Rosa and with former special assistant Bong Go is working in their favor, compared to that of former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Francis Tolentino.

“I will not fault a president for not being able to get all of his endorsees in because our people are really personality politics-based,” Tabunda said.

She said Corazon Aquino was the only president in history who was able to make 11 out of her 12 senatorial candidates win in an election “because of the circumstances.” Aquino symbolized democracy as she was installed as president after then dictator Ferdinand Marcos was toppled through a peaceful people’s uprising.

“After that, nothing,” she said.

Name must ring a bell

Tabunda and Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes stressed name recall remains to be a major factor in the ranking of senatorial candidates in pre-election surveys, which should prompt newcomers to work on improving public awareness on their candidacies.

Tabunda made the explanation following observations on the ranking of certain public figures, particularly opposition candidates, who are running for the Senate but placed below virtual unknowns in the survey firm’s latest poll.

Tabunda cited the case of opposition bet, former solicitor general Florin Hilbay, who ranked 38th to 69th out of the 70 senatorial candidates listed in the poll.

According to Tabunda, a journalist may know whoever is the former, current or the future solicitor general but this is not the case “with Juan dela Cruz” or the ordinary citizen.

“Add to that the fact that his surname Hilbay is not common. Unlike Arellano, de Guzman, Francisco – names ahead of Hilbay that are carried by relatives of relatives or my relatives…” she said.

Tabunda surmised people had to figure out who Hilbay was during the surveys as he is using his nickname “Pilo” instead of his first name Florin, as he was known when he was in government.

Hilbay obtained an awareness rating of four percent with a voter preference of 0.4 percent in the Pulse Asia survey conducted from Dec. 14 to 21 last year.

The poll used face-to-face interviews of 1,800 adult Filipinos.

Following the release of the survey, Hilbay vowed yesterday to work hard to raise public awareness about his candidacy after the latest Pulse Asia senatorial survey showed him at the tailend of the poll.

One of those instrumental in securing the country’s victory in its case against China’s territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea before the arbitral tribunal in 2016, Hilbay said the survey “gives a view of the terrain and the challenge that needs to be confronted by a new candidate.”

“There’s no other way to go but up, and I intend to use the survey as inspiration to work hard at raising awareness,” he said.

For another opposition bet, human rights lawyer Jose Manuel “Chel” Diokno, surveys are not the end-all and be-all of the Senate race.

“It isn’t over yet. This is just the beginning. We’re used to fighting as underdogs as long as it is for truth and justice,” he said.

Diokno, son of the late senator Jose “Pepe” Diokno, ranked 26th to 35th with an awareness rating of 24 percent and 3.4 voter preference in the same Pulse Asia survey.

Weak strategies?

For Edna Co, former dean of the University of the Philippines-National College of Public Administration and Governance, the latest senatorial survey conducted by Pulse Asia showed weaknesses in strategies of the opposition.

Co told The STAR the opposition needs to improve its strategies – “energize, vitalize, drumbeat candidates” to achieve impact and better voters’ appetite.

Like Tabunda, Co noted that the survey results show respondents still prefer common or familiar names that are easy to recall.

Of the eight candidates endorsed by the former ruling party, only former presidential candidate Mar Roxas and re-electionist Sen. Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV are within the margin of the so-called Magic 12, ranking eighth to 15th and 10th to 16th, respectively.

The other opposition candidates placed further down the list: former Quezon representative Erin Tañada at 22 to 31, Magdalo party-list Rep. Gary Alejano at 27 to 37, election lawyer Romulo Macalintal at 28 to 50 and civic leader Samira Gutoc-Tomawis at 34 to 55.

Former Bayan Muna party-list representative Neri Colmenares, who is also running as a candidate critical of the administration, placed 19 to 24.

Political analyst Edmund Tayao said the survey results are expected to make candidates rethink their strategies, noting that surveys are being used to show the strengths and weaknesses of candidates.

“Any candidate that can come up with something new in the sense that it can generate interest on the part of the voting public, that would spell the difference,” he said in a phone interview. – With Janvic Mateo, Paolo Romero