Duterte's China policy brought 'favorable' results, says expert

MANILA, Philippines —President Rodrigo Duterte's policy on China has produced "favorable" results for the Philippines and should not be judged based solely on the "underdog pronouncements" of the Philippine leader, a foreign policy expert said.

This does not mean however that the approach does not have its weaknesses, in the same way that the policy on China of former President Benigno Aquino III had its fair share of gains and losses, according to Aaron Jed Rabena, an associate fellow at the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations.

Writing for The Interpreter by the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, Rabena said Duterte's "broad engagement with China," consultations on the South China Sea and assertion of strategic autonomy from the US had produced "favorable, if targeted," results.

"[T]o pass judgment on Duterte’s foreign policy based solely on his underdog pronouncements towards China overlooks the broader gains of his foreign policy. In assessing Duterte’s foreign policy, it is necessary that it be juxtaposed with that of his predecessor, Benigno Aquino III," Rabena wrote.

He said Duterte's approach had resulted in improvements in the country's diplomatic and political relations with non-traditional partners such as China and Russia.

In addition, Manila's strategic value had risen in the eyes of the US following the uncertainty Duterte introduced to US-Philippine relations as shown by Washington's better offer of military assets, according to Rabena.

There was also competition between China and Japan over the country's infrastructure development and structural improvements on Philippine features in the South China Sea and military modernization under Duterte, he said.

Interceptions of Philippine supply vessels and fishermen have also ceased, he said.

Approach has drawbacks too

However, Rep. Gary Alejano (Magdalo) revealed early this month that a resupply mission for a small contingent of soldiers guarding Ayungin Shoal was harassed by China's navy and coast guard.

A news report also showed that China's coast guard personnel boarded vessels by Filipino fishermen and took away some of their prize catch.

Rabena said that Duterte's policy also has its downside as his "defeatist statements" have created an impression that Manila is helpless and desperate for China's economic aid.

China's militarization of the South China Sea also continued despite Duterte's friendlier policy, he said.

He said that although Aquino's approach put a "moral value" on the country's maritime claims and earned the country a bargaining chip in the form of the United Nations-backed tribunal ruling it also increased the risk of a conflict.

"[I]t appeared that Sino-Philippine bilateral relations only revolved on the South China Sea. Moreover, China unabashedly carried on with its land reclamation operations," he said.

He said that Duterte had also demonstrated that there were alternative diplomatic strategies in safeguarding sovereign rights and national interests.

"To say the Duterte government has adopted a policy of appeasement may be premature, as the Philippines has not yet lost any of its occupied features in the South China Sea," Rabena said.

He said that aside from its pragmatic approach the Duterte government could take a more proactive foreign policy and avoid an image of "practising defeatist engagement and accommodation."

"It could stop giving voice to statements that imply an inferiority complex, for one. And it could also make a clear a view that the realisation of power, and not just international law, prescribes the interaction of nation-states and the defence of core interests," Rabena said.