Experts: No break of precedent in Chinese deployment of planes in Mischief Reef
MANILA, Philippines — Beijing's deployment of transport military planes on Mischief Reef on the Spratly Islands show a steady pattern of escalation, according to maritime analysts.
Despite the Philippines mulling to file a protest over China's reported landing of military claims on the Manila-claimed reef, this development would not have a great impact on the overall situation in the South China Sea, according to RAND Senior Policy Analyst Lyle Morris.
Landing a transport military plane on Mischief Reef would not cross a new threshold of militarization in the Spratly Islands but fighter jets would, Morris said on Twitter.
China had already deployed a military transport aircraft on Fiery Cross Reef, another Manila-claimed feature in the Spratlys, in April 2016. Beijing had also deployed a number of planes on Woody Island in the Paracels.
"Because of the dual-use nature of military transport aircraft, the move does not cross an unambiguous threshold of offensive militarization of Chinese-occupied features in the Spratlys the same way that fighter jets would, for example," Morris told Philstar.com
Mischief Reef, however, would be more significant for the Philippines as it is a low tide elevation within the country's exclusive economic zone and on its continental shelf.
The Philippines has exclusive rights of use to Mischief Reef, where China had also reportedly installed military jamming equipment.
"Therefore I would expect the Philippines government to protest this move as being unnecessarily destabilizing and a breach of Philippines sovereignty," Morris said.
The latest developments in the Spratly Islands, however, extends the geographical envelope of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, according to Euhan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute International Security Program.
"I wouldn’t be surprised to see the first PLAAF combat jet deployment occur to the Spratlys later this year. China can always find an excuse to dress up as a “provocation” if it needs one," Graham told Philstar.com
The landing of Chinese transport aircraft might simply be delivering equipment and personnel to support ground-based military from the artificial island, the Lowy Institute director said.
Graham warned that China may consider another American freedom of operation and navigation operation or even the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the US as a "provocation."
"Ultimately, the PLA has a plan to use the Spratlys for their custom-built purpose - to extend the envelope of China’s air and seapower throughout the South China Sea. The only debatable issue there is sooner, or later," Graham said.
Greogory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), said that China's deployment of military planes on its outposts did not come as a surprise.
"This fits a steady pattern of escalation," Poling told Philstar.com, adding that this individual deployment should not necessarily be a cause for alarm.
Echoing the analysis of Morris, Poling said that the real alarm should be when the first fighter jets land in the Spratlys "and all evidence is that they will sooner or later."
The latest developments should be a cause for skepticism of China's intentions.
"Combined with the recent deployment of jammers to the islands, and its ongoing construction of military facilities, this does not paint the picture of a party willing to forego military force and pursue negotiations in good faith," Poling said.
Earlier this week, Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano claimed that the Philippine government is on top of the situation, assuring the public that the agency is taking all diplomatic actions needed to protect the country's claims.
"In fact, we know much more than what is published in the newspapers or released by US think tanks because we see the bigger picture," Cayetano said in a press briefing.
RELATED: Cayetano: Government has more info on South China Sea than in media reports
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