Xi Jinping’s rise shatters hopes for democracy in China

BEIJING – Orville Schell, a longtime China expert, has vivid memories of his first trip to the country back in 1975. Mao Zedong was leading China through the tumultuous Cultural Revolution, and Chinese were being shamed, beaten and even killed for perceived political mistakes.

Things were vastly different when he returned four years later. Mao was dead, and the country was pulling itself together under reformist Deng Xiaoping. So radical was the transformation that some Chinese felt emboldened enough to plaster posters on a wall in central Beijing criticizing past excesses and advocating democracy.

“China had suddenly gone from being this implacable enemy that was closed to any contact to being quite open and receptive to interacting,” recalled Schell, now the director of the Center on US-China Relations at the New York-based Asia Society.

That opening and Deng’s subsequent market-style economic reforms fueled speculation that China was destined to become a democracy.

The rise of President Xi Jinping, who is now poised to rule indefinitely after China’s rubber-stamp legislature voted Sunday to eliminate presidential term limits, has changed all that, a growing number of Western analysts say.

“In the past, both sides presumed China was trying to become more democratic,” Schell said. “What Xi marks so clearly is that there is no longer the pretension ... that China is becoming more democratic and open.”

Under Deng, the ruling Communist Party began to allow small-scale free enterprise and eased social controls.

To ensure the party’s survival, leaders embarked on a bold experiment in the 1990s to create a formal system of succession. The Chinese public still had no voice in picking their government, but leaders would share power and step down after fixed terms.