Analyst: Trump in Manila could do more harm than good

MANILA, Philippines — The attendance of United States (US) President Donald Trump on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Manila on November might do more harm than good, an analyst said.

Aaron Connelly, a research fellow in the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, said that it would be difficult to imagine Trump listening to a plenary session that might last until four hours.

"It is difficult to imagine Trump patiently listening to the General Secretary of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party hold forth on sustainable development, or responding in a constructive manner should Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte blast century-old US human rights abuses, as he did last year," Connelly said in his article titled "Don't waste time trying to get Trump to Manila."

Connelly noted that it is unclear whether Trump will attend the summits as he is not fond of spending more than a couple days on the road.

The APEC and ASEAN summits are scheduled back-to-back in November and would require at least six days, including flights to and from the region.

Trump may take interest in the APEC Forum's economic orientation but the ASEAN Summit will cover issues of less interest to him, Connelly said.

The ASEAN Summit is expected to tackle regional diplomatic architecture and the Chinese challenge to the rules-based order in the region.

"Trump could skip much of the plenary (leaders do occasionally duck out to take bathroom breaks or hold the odd bilateral) but not without offending his hosts and indicating the very lack of engagement we'd hoped to avoid," Connelly said.

Connelly noted that plenary sessions of the summits have tested the patience of former US President Barck Obama but he understood the importance of demonstrating his willingness to listen to the concerns of Southeast Asian leaders.

The Obama administration's Asia pivot gave assurance to ASEAN countries that the US will back them despite pressure from China.

"If Trump were to skip the summits, some diplomats and analysts would probably conclude that US commitment to the region had diminished, and Trump would miss an opportunity to put a face with a country in a way that might be helpful in a future crisis," Connelly said.

The new US president's absence, however, would reduce the chances "that an errant early morning tweet by Trump would throw the day's sessions into chaos."

Sending US Vice President Mike Pence or US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson instead would lessen such risk, Connelly said.

The US also has other ways of signaling its commitment to the region such as negotiation of new economic arrangements, attendance of Cabinet officials at key ministerial meetings in the region, continued funding of governance problems and increased naval presence.

Last January, President Rodrigo Duterte sent an invitation to Trump to attend the ASEAN summit that will be held in the country.

Trump, however, has not yet committed to visiting the Philippines for the ASEAN summit in November.