Experts: Duterte presidency unlikely to be as radical as campaign vowed

MANILA, Philippines — Presumptive Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte gave outrageous threats and promises on the campaign trail, but his administration is unlikely to be radical as his rhetoric has been, policy experts at a Washington-based think tank said.

Conor Cronin, a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has long been an observer of the Philippines, and researcher Norashiqin Toh said Duterte's proposed policies are not very original.

"While Duterte portrays himself as anti-establishment, many of his domestic policy proposals—when stripped of their bombast—do not veer very far from the current administration or those of his fellow candidates," the analysts said in a statement released by the think tank.

Duterte's anti-corruption stance also echoes Aquino's "straight path" slogan that marked his 2010 campaign. He also said he is open to adopting sound economic policies of his rivals.

"Like Aquino, Duterte said he would consider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and wants to cut bureaucratic red tape to attract foreign investment and improve the ease of conducting business," Cronin and Toh said.

Last week, Duterte's transition team bared the new administration's economic plans centering on taxes, infrastructure, social services and rural development. Included in Duterte's economic agenda is the easing of economic restrictions to attract foreign direct investments.

Latest statements from his camp were seen by some analysts as promising and a departure from "gutter" campaign language that had made investors anxious.

"He has since conducted himself in a more presidential and statesman-like manner. This has been a huge positive surprise for the market which seemingly expected the worst from him," wrote business analyst Wilson Sy.

Breaks with establishment

The policy analysts said that what can set Duterte's government apart from the current administration is his focus on crime and his agenda to establish a federal state.

Citing a Philippine STAR report that the next leader's first executive order would be to declare criminality as "an issue of national security," Cronin and Toh said they are expecting a harsh crackdown on drugs and crime dens when he assumes office.

"Whether this will take the form of his repeated threats to dump the bodies of 100,000 criminals in Manila Bay or some more tenable anti-crime platform remains to be seen," they said.

As mayor of Davao, Duterte has been linked to the Davao Death Squad known for hunting down and eliminating suspected criminals. While campaigning, Duterte said he supports extrajudicial killings of criminals and even admitted to committing murder.

Duterte vowed to push for a federal system of government, arguing this would address the peace crisis and slow development in Mindanao. It will also decentralize power that Manila has long held, he said.

"His (federalism) proposal is likely to meet major resistance," the analysts said.