Analyst: US patrol in South China Sea may prompt China to arm up

MANILA, Philippines — The close-in patrolling of United States (US) near artificial islands in the South China Sea would encourage China to place more weaponry on the area, an analyst said.

"No doubt, if Beijing feels its new outposts are being threatened, this will increase its motivation to arm up," University of Western Australia Prof. Andrew Chubb said in his article released on East Asia Forum.

Chubb noted that the US military's plans to send planes and ships within 12 nautical miles (nm) of China's reclamation projects appears to have been stalled.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea states that artificial islands do not have territorial sea of their own.

Therefore, patrols within 12 nm of submerged features are on safe legal grounds and will not be considered as a violation of any country's territorial waters.

However, small "rocks" that are above sea level at high tide may be entitled to 12 nm of territorial sea.

The American patrols would need strong evidence that a disputed area is entirely submerged in its natural state to enter within 12 nm of the area.

The US defense establishment is seeking to assert freedom on navigation near China's artificial islands to help stabilize the territorial dispute in the area, Chubb explained.

"Carefully differentiating between different legal categories of features would answer the region’s desire for the United States to support a rules-based order in maritime Asia, while not becoming a source of additional tensions," Chubb said.

The US patrols would only be free to roam around outside the 12 nm radius of the islands to serve its purpose of asserting freedom of navigation.

"Entering the zone, but refraining from pressing further, would clearly signal that the purpose is to demonstrate that no territorial seas exist, as per international law, rather than threaten any state’s positions in the area," the analyst said.

The analyst pointed out that US ships or aircrafts traversing within the 12 nm of artificial islands would only become a major issue for mainland China if its state media coverage makes it one.

"Confrontation, would not necessarily be the preferred choice for the Chinese public," Chubb added.

In August, a naval vessel of the US military sailed past Chinese ships patrolling the South China and West Philippine seas.