Poe, Binay, Mar statistically tied

MANILA, Philippines - The 2016 presidential elections could be a neck-and-neck battle among Sen. Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay and Liberal Party standard-bearer Manuel Roxas II, according to a pre-election survey of BusinessWorld and Social Weather Stations (SWS).

The SWS pre-election poll, conducted from Sept. 2 to 5, showed that the three presidential aspirants are statistically tied at first place, with 26 percent saying they would vote for Poe, 24 percent for Binay and 20 percent for Roxas.

The survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 respondents nationwide, of whom 96 percent are registered voters. It has sampling error margins of plus or minus three percentage points for national percentages and plus or minus six percentage points each for Metro Manila, balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.

If the margin of error is applied, Poe, Roxas and Binay are considered “statistically tied” in first place in the BusinessWorld-SWS pre-election survey, according to Ana Maria Tabunda, research director of Pulse Asia.

The SWS furnished the respondents a list of 12 names provided by BusinessWorld to choose from and to be answered orally. They were asked the question: “Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as president of the Philippines if elections were held today?”

The list was in alphabetical order and included nicknames, in the manner of ballots during Election Day.

In the SWS third quarter survey on the Filipinos’ presidential preference that was also taken from Sept. 2 to 5, Poe also topped the poll with 47 percent, followed by Roxas with 39 percent and Binay with 35 percent.

But unlike the BusinessWorld-SWS pre-election survey, the SWS third quarter survey did not provide the respondents a list but asked them to name the best leaders to succeed President Aquino in 2016. They were allowed to give up to three names.

Pulse Asia will release the results of its third quarter electoral survey next week.

Asked if the Pulse Asia survey results were approximate to the SWS findings, Tabunda said, “It will be close, we have a different survey period but it will not be very far.”

Expecting a tight fight in the presidential race, Binay will work harder to get the people’s support, his spokesman for political affairs Rico Quicho said yesterday in reaction to the BusinessWorld-SWS pre-election survey.

“The survey results will inspire the Vice President and his core supporters to work harder and not to be overconfident,” Quicho added. “The elections will be a battle for every single vote and the Vice President will continue to personally meet with the people around the country.”

Malacañang, on the other hand, lauded the latest survey, saying the result “reflects public sentiments on the future leadership of the country.”

“The President believes that the 2016 elections shall be a referendum on daang matuwid and trusts that the people will affirm the need to continue treading the path of good governance by electing the best qualified candidate,” saidd Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. of the Presidential Communications Operations Office.

The BusinessWorld-SWS pre-election survey also had Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte in fourth place with 11 percent. He was followed by Sens. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Francis Escudero with four percent each.

Former President and now Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada got three percent; followed by Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago with two percent and former senator Manuel Villar Jr. with one percent.

Former senator Panfilo Lacson, Sens. Alan Peter Cayetano and Loren Legarda obtained 0.8 percent each. Two percent of the respondents were undecided.

Poe, Escudero lead VP race

Poe and Escudero continued to lead the vice presidential race in the BusinessWorld-SWS pre-election survey.

According to the survey, 27 percent of respondents chose Poe while 20 percent selected Escudero.

Escudero announced last Sept. 17 he will be Poe’s running mate in 2016. Escudero made the announcement a day after Poe declared her intention to seek the presidency next year.

Other personalities included in the vice presidential survey obtained less than 10 percent.

They were Duterte with nine percent; Marcos, seven percent; Estrada, seven percent; Cayetano, five percent; Legarda, five percent; Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos-Recto, four percent; Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, four percent; Lacson, three percent; Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo, three percent; Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, two percent; and former Manila mayor and now Buhay party-list Rep. Lito Atienza Jr., 0.9 percent.

Three percent of respondents were undecided. – With Delon Porcalla