‘Power shortage in 2015 inevitable’

MANILA, Philippines - Power generators don’t see a repeat of the era of blackouts the Philippines experienced during the first Aquino presidency but many agree there will indeed be a power crisis in 2015 if the government is unable to avert it.

In a recent interview with The STAR, Ernesto Pantangco, chairman of the energy committee of the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP), said a power shortage is most definite next summer.

“Anyway you look at it, there is going to be a shortage. We are looking at a period which is very critical, and that is from March 15 to April 15 when the Malampaya will go on maintenance shutdown,” he said.

Pantangco was referring to the deep water, natural gas to power Malampaya project in Northwest Palawan, which supplies natural gas to three power plants in Batangas, accounting for 40 percent of the requirements of the Luzon grid.

The three plants sourcing power from Malampaya are the 1,200-megawatt (MW) Ilijan combined cycle natural gas plant owned by Kepco Philippines Corp. and the 1,000 MW Sta. Rita and 500 MW San Lorenzo natural gas facilities owned by First Gen Corp. of the Lopez group.

Pantangco, executive vice president of First Gen and the Lopez Group’s geothermal company, Energy Development Corp. (EDC), said the shutdown would affect the output of the Ilijan plant.

“When Malampaya is out, it’s a reality that Ilijan has difficulty running on liquid fuel. There is no fuel storage. Because of the fuel storage issue they can only run 600 MW or half of 1,200 MW. When it runs on biodiesel, the 600 MW drops to 420 MW,” he said.

There are other factors such as the unreliability of the hydropower plants during summer because the water levels are low during the hot months.

Worsening the problem is the higher probability of unplanned or forced power outages during the summer months because of the high temperature and the increase in demand.

“In summer, there’s an increase in forced outages because it’s very hot and admittedly, the plants are very old,” Pantangco said.

“All of these factors plus increase in demand will add to the problem. So far, with our growth, increase in power demand has been close to 300 MW every year,” Pantangco said.

Former energy secretary and now president of Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp. Francisco Viray agreed, saying that forced outages would greatly affect next year’s power situation.

Asked what would guarantee a blackout-free summer, Viray said “if the plants operate smoothly and there are no forced outages.”

“We’re not back to 1993. That, I am sure,” he said in a recent interview.

Viray, president of the National Power Corp. (Napocor) during the 1990s, said supply was insufficient at the time. This time, it’s the reserves that are not enough.

The STAR interviewed power industry sources and some expect there would be blackouts next summer of at least one hour.

“If it’s any consolation, we’re not back in the Cory Aquino time but we’re back to the season of blackouts,” one source said.

“There would be at least one hour of rotating blackouts during peak demand,” said another executive from a power company.

Meanwhile, Sen. Serge Osmeña III, chairman of the Senate energy committee, is still optimistic that there would be no blackouts.

“I’m very, very sure there will be no brownouts. I know we will have enough power,” he said in a recent interview.

In a worst-case scenario, the blackout would only be an hour long for one or two days, he said.

For Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla, however, hope springs eternal.

“We have a problem but we are doing something about it. It will be resolved,” he said.

He said there is no need for consumers to buy their own home generators, which come at a pricey tab of at least P50,000.