Phl threatened by more disastrous rains – ADB study

MANILA, Philippines - More frequent and heavier rains are likely in the coming years with dangers to population seen to rise, unless concerned authorities take appropriate steps to prevent disasters and address effects of climate change, a study spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank Independent Evaluation Department said.

In its study, the ADB said disastrous typhoons like Super Typhoon Yolanda are likely to hit the country every two years due to changing climate patterns.

The study was prepared by Vinod Thomas of IE-ADB; Jose Ramon Albert of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and Cameron Hepburn of Oxford University and the London School of Economics.

The paper cited the greater vulnerability of people to growing dangers arising from harsh weather conditions.

The study also showed that most of the major natural disasters occur in the Asia Pacific region, especially in Southeast Asia.

Thomas said the study gives an empirical basis to the relationship between climate anomalies and the frequency of disasters, and draws attention to the need for preventive measures, including climate mitigation.

“This paper’s empirical evidence, on an association between the rising frequency of intense natural disasters in Asia and the Pacific countries and climate change, stresses the urgency for reducing man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Thomas added.

Governments need to build disaster resilience into national growth strategies and treat it as investment. Japan invests some five percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in this area with strong results. High returns are also evident even where spending is far less.

In Bangladesh, effective warning systems and evacuation centers made the difference between a powerful cyclone in 1997 with 185 lives lost in comparison with a similarly strong storm in 1970 that took some 300,000 lives.

High on the list would be investments in low-carbon technologies and renewable energy, as well as forest protection, such as adoption of carbon sequestration to capture and store emissions from industry.