‘Moderate’ El Niño may be felt next month

MANILA, Philippines - A moderate El Niño weather phenomenon is seen coming into the country in the next few months.

Speaking to reporters in General Santos City yesterday, Vicente Malano, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) acting director, said the numerical computational models they were using to monitor the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean indicated a “moderate” El Niño that might come in June.

“It will not be as bad as the 1997-1998 El Niño that we had in the country. We’re seeing a moderate El Niño,” he said. 

Malano spoke at the opening of the two-day disaster imagination workshop for SOCCSKSARGEN region of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST)’s “Iba Na Ang Panahon (INAP): Science for Safer Communities” national road show.

El Niño is defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures when compared with the average.

Meanwhile, Archbishop of Manila Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle has asked the faithful to pray for rain.

In a circular, Tagle said the Archdiocese of Manila can include the Oratio imperata or mandatory prayers for rain in the daily and Sunday Masses beginning May 18.

“Let us together storm heavens with our supplication, that God’s mercy be upon us and send us the rain we need,” he said. “It is the time for our rainy season and yet the rains have not come. People tasked with managing our water/power resources have warned that we face a crisis in those areas. Our relief will come from nature. And so we implore the Master of all creation, God, our Father, at whose command the winds and the seas obey, to send us rain.”

The country, especially Luzon, badly needs rain to avert damage to crops and other livelihood and prevent a power shortage, Tagle said.

Malano said they are not ruling out possible revision of the onset of El Niño.

The sea surface temperature anomaly level of .4 over the Pacific Ocean the past few months – which had led the DOST and PAGASA to declare the onset of El Niño probably by June – has gone down, he added.

A sea surface temperature anomaly level of .5 is considered an El Niño condition, PAGASA weather scientists said.

In the 1997 El Niño phenomenon in the country, the sea surface temperature anomaly level had reached 1 degree and brought severe heat and less rainfall, he added.

Mindanao must make sure to always be ready with  disaster risk reduction and management plans because it has been seeing an increasing number of typhoons in recent years, Malano said.

The disaster imagination workshop in General Santos City is the homestretch of DOST’s INAP national road show, which started in Central Luzon the first week of March in Clark. 

The INAP is a collaboration between the DOST, Department of the Interior and Local Government, and the Office of Civil Defense.  The SOCCSKSARGEN stop is the second to the last leg of the information and education campaign for disaster mitigation and preparedness.

It is being held at the KCC Convention Center in General Santos City.

The city has just reorganized its City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council for a more effective disaster management program. The regional information and education campaign constitutes a nationwide road show, which began in March 2014 to equip local governments with disaster information via science-based tools like 3D hazard maps, flood models, Project NOAH website navigation familiarization, hazard simulation software, and mobile applications.

Provincial governors, city and municipal mayors, disaster risk reduction and city planning officers, as well as local government consultants are enjoined to attend the two-day event which focuses on local hazard risks in the region.  â€“  With Evelyn Macairan