MANILA, Philippines - Cambodia’s image could recover if its hosting of the ASEAN Summit and seventh East Asia Summit (EAS) next month would go better than the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) which resulted in the non-issuance of a joint communiqué, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Cambodia will fulfill its last major obligation as this year’s ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) chair when it hosts the Summit and EAS on Nov. 18-20.
The chair’s blocking the inclusion of any mention of the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) maritime disputes stumped the joint communiqué last July in Phnom Penh.
Gregory Poling and Alexandra Sander, research associate and researcher with the CSIS Chair for Southeast Asia Studies, respectively, said the non-issuance of a joint communiqué at the end of the meeting in Phnom Penh cast significant doubt on ASEAN’s ability to evolve and tackle tough issues.
Their statement was contained in their paper “Southeast Asia from the Corner of the 18th and K Streets: Cambodia’s EAS Carrot: Incentives for a Successful Summit.”
“It also caused troubling allegations, especially from Vietnam and the Philippines, that Cambodia had placed its close relationship with China above the interests of its fellow ASEAN members,” the CSIS said.
The EAS will provide Cambodia with the opportunity to restore some of its credibility after the public embarrassment of the AMM in July, the CSIS said.
“On that occasion, Cambodia used its prerogative as ASEAN chair to block the inclusion of any mention of the South China Sea maritime disputes in the joint communiqué at the end of the meeting, resulting in the organization’s first-ever failure to release such a document,” it said.
The CSIS said the key for a successful EAS would be supporting Cambodia as an effective chair.
A successful EAS, and by extension a stronger regional framework in the Asia Pacific, is in the interest of all EAS members, including the United States.
“All the damage wrought in July will not be fixed in three days in November. But if the EAS goes demonstrably better than the AMM did, Cambodia’s image will have a chance to recover and some of the ASEAN skeptics will be quieted.”
The 2012 EAS agenda will include a number of such topics, including maritime security and the ongoing disputes in the South and East China Seas.
“Some members would rather avoid these topics, which have turned contentious at nearly every major ASEAN-led meeting in the last three years. But Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan are almost certain to raise them, and others, the United States included, will not keep quiet once the issues are tabled,” the paper said.
The summit will also include side meetings on two different visions for economic integration – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership favored by China and the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The paper pointed out that even if demonstrable progress on these key issues proves elusive, fostering an honest and substantive dialogue will show Cambodia to be the responsible chair it claimed to be early in the year.
“Strong Cambodian leadership and a flexible, effective response to any lack of consensus on key issues will alleviate doubts about ASEAN unity and efficacy. That will allow the organization to cement its place at the center of regional political, security, and economic structures,” the paper said.
“Cambodia occupies the chairmanship during an important juncture in ASEAN’s evolution and is therefore saddled with the difficult task, but also the opportunity, of steering it through these thorny issues.”
Cambodia was urged to seek to leverage the expected accomplishments of the EAS in order to mitigate the damage from any points of contention.
The most important role of the chair is the prerogative to set the agenda at the summit.
Cambodia cannot prevent the Philippines or Vietnam from raising the South China Sea issue, for instance, but it can take the initiative and place that discussion where it will be most effective, it said.
“But what it cannot attempt is a repeat of its behavior at the AMM, where it refused to include any of the tough issues on the agenda and became upset when its counterparts refused to play along. The role of the chair must be to guide discussions, not to block or react to them,” the paper added.
Cambodia’s performance at the AMM cemented the perceptions of those who said fecklessness and division were the inevitable outcomes of ASEAN’s smaller and less developed members occupying the chair.
It is crucial that Cambodia set a precedent for how the upcoming chairs can engage contentious issues and manage tensions between the region’s larger players.
The CSIS paper noted, “This is especially true of Cambodia’s handling of China. Cambodia, like Myanmar and Laos, is heavily dependent on Chinese aid and investment.”
It also lacks a deep strategic relationship with the US to help balance its dependence on Beijing. The result is that Cambodia is more prone to Chinese pressure than are most ASEAN members.
One possible result was on display at the AMM, when China leveraged its relationship with Cambodia to crack ASEAN unity and protect its interests.
“A repeat at the upcoming summits could be devastating, supporting those in Beijing who argue that China’s interests are better served by a divided ASEAN and sending a message to the organization’s other susceptible members that sacrificing ASEAN unity to please China is acceptable.”
Cambodia was also urged to “communicate to China, by words and actions, that it cannot manipulate the ASEAN chair into overrepresenting Chinese interests.”
“This will be a tall order, particularly as the EAS will take place amid a highly sensitive leadership transition in Beijing. Cambodia will have to allow its neighbors to discuss the contentious issues important to them, regardless of Chinese objections, in an honest and transparent manner.”
But it will also have to guide the discussion to avoid provoking China unnecessarily.