'Phl could get poorer due to ballooning population'

MANILA, Philippines - A US-based population and health expert yesterday warned that the Philippines could be as impoverished as Somalia because of its ballooning population.

Dr. Malcolm Potts, professor at the Bixby Center for Population, Health and Sustainability at the University of California, Berkeley, said the growing population is the most important issue in the country.

He said the Philippines’ population could hit 160 million in the next 40 years if the government would not implement an effective reproductive health policy. “Unless a reproductive health bill goes through, unless you are able to offer the poorest economic quintile living on P5 a day the choices that they deserve, then people will be poorer, you will be importing food, you will (be) more like Somalia than like Thailand,” Potts said in a forum organized by the Asia Society Philippine Foundation, Inc.

Potts said that in 1970, the Philippines and Thailand had almost identical population of about 36.7 million. He said population growth rate for both countries is about three percent per annum.

In 2007, Potts said the Philippines’ growth rate was 2.04 while Thailand’s was 0.8 percent.

“Today, Thailand is very much richer than the Philippines on a per capita basis... a lot of that driven by population,” he said. According to a US study in 2001, the country’s annual rice consumption would only be 13 million metric tons instead of 18 million MT if it had only sustained its population policy and family planning programs. 

“With 16 million metric tons domestic production, the Philippines would’ve been a net exporter of 3 million MT,” the study said.

Potts said a reduction in birth rate could stimulate economic growth by having more people in the workforce than dependents.                                                                                

Potts also noted that one third of the economic success of the Asian tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) is driven by population management.

“They have large number of people in the working group and few people to support,” Potts said.

“Those countries that reach replacement-level fertility are likely to move forward economically and socially. Thailand and the other Asian tigers with small families despite some hiccups in their economies are likely to prosper, while the Philippines could slide towards the African scenario of economic decline and social instability,” Potts said.

An article of his published in 2000 titled “Population and National Security Risk: Thailand vs. the Philippines,” said wars are most likely when the population pyramid has a broad base and higher ratio of young males aged 15-29 to older males.

“Growing unemployment, especially among young males, will provide tinder for ignition by political extremists and religious fanatics,” he said.

Potts said the government should start providing various contraceptive methods to couples.

“There should be a variety of distribution channels, including the government, private sector, and non-government organizations,” he said.

The controversial Reproductive Health bill is still pending in Congress because of opposition by pro-life groups, primarily the Catholic Church.

There have been calls for the holding of a plebiscite to get the consensus of the people to the bill that would promote family planning and greater access to maternal healthcare.

President Aquino, however, prefers to wait for the output of the congressional committees hearing the provisions of the bill and the recommendations of the Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC).                 

“It’s still a bill. When do we hold the plebiscite?” Aquino said yesterday. “Let’s wait for the final output of the committees and the plenary debates.”

He said the bill would be included in the agenda of the upcoming LEDAC meet.

A team headed by Presidential Management Staff head Julia Abad is expected to meet soon with groups opposing the bill, Catholic bishops included.

Aquino maintains that the choice of birth control methods should be left to couples.

“I haven’t changed my position. If it follows the responsible parenthood platform that we’re advocating, then I’m supportive (of it),” he said.

Last month, Malacañang said Aquino had started meeting with members of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) on the bill. – With Delon Porcalla