Metro Manila unprepared for big quake

MANILA, Philippines - Natural disasters such as strong earthquakes, not social unrest or military coups, now pose the biggest threats to business continuity in Metro Manila, and the country is not prepared to deal with the threat, according to a leading business risk consultancy.

In a report for its clients and made available to The STAR, Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA) said Metro Manila, with its population of 11 million which rises to approximately 14 million during work hours, will likely be thrown into a state of chaos following a major earthquake event and businesses would simply not be able to sustain operations.

Pete Troilo, director for business intelligence of the PSA, said, “The risk profile of the Philippines has traditionally been defined by political instability and security challenges. While these dynamics are still at play, today organizations in the country are increasingly focused on natural disaster-related risks.”

The PSA Metro Manila Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment builds on the 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) that continues to serve as the research benchmark for Metro Manila earthquake vulnerability and preparedness.

Withheld from the public for four years, the MMEIRS revealed that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake would destroy 38 percent of homes, one-third of public buildings and cause over 50,000 deaths.

The MMEIRS showed that because Metro Manila is surrounded by numerous earthquake generators and that the active phases of the West Valley Fault phase are quickly approaching, the country’s existing disaster management systems are insufficient and an earthquake could cause a national crisis.

34,000 killed; 110,000 injured

More specifically, the study said that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake originating from the West Valley Fault would result in 34,000 people killed instantly; 110,000 injured; 13 percent of 170,000 residential buildings heavily damaged or collapsed rendering 1.2 million people homeless; around 25 percent of critical public facilities like hospitals and schools moderately damaged; and 500 fire breakouts.

The study likewise said that 4,000 water supply points would be cut immediately with damage to reservoirs and water purification plants causing major long-term water shortages; 30 kilometers of electricity cables cut with drastic power failure across the city for several weeks if not longer; 100 kilometers of telecommunications cables cut with services suspended for several weeks if not longer; runways would be closed and there would be loss of function in airport facilities with only helicopter transport available; damage to major ports and cargo handling mechanisms will prevent loading and unloading; and all roads will be disabled, up to nine crucial bridges are expected to be damaged and key government installations will also be destroyed, stopping official government functions.

Collateral damages

The PSA included in its study the threat of fire, regional separation and tsunamis to make a credible assessment of Metro Manila’s vulnerability to an earthquake disaster. The following are its key findings:

• Soil composition and liquefaction: The different cities in Metro Manila have varying degrees of earthquake risk due to their sediment composition. A closer evaluation of Metro Manila soil composition revealed that the region is dominated by quatemay allurium which is generally not suitable for construction of big infrastructures and buildings.

• Tsunami: While preliminary studies have downplayed the threat of a major tsunami in Metro Manila, PHIVOLCS and others agree, however, that an offshore quake could spark a sea surge that would enter Manila Bay and flood the immediate areas such as old Manila. Such sea surge could temporarily stop the flow of water out of the mouth of the Pasig River, resulting in the overflow of its banks and flooding communities along the river, including Malacañang and the Pandacan oil depot.

• Urban settlements and planning: Despite the rapid urbanization in the National Capital Region over the last four decades, the national government has failed to adopt a comprehensive land use plan for Metro Manila. The lack of coordination and checks and balance mechanisms between local and national governments have likewise weakened the enforcement of building standards, with many residential and commercial buildings built on hazard prone areas using substandard construction materials.

• Regional separation: MMEIRS and other studies have revealed that Metro Manila could be separated into four regions after a major earthquake due to the collapse of buildings, destruction of elevated highways and bridges, impassable roads and fire.

• Fire: Experts agree that earthquake damage and casualties in Metro Manila will be caused first and foremost directly by building collapse and secondly by spreading fires that will break out from residential buildings.

• Building codes and corruption: Corruption has long been established in the building construction and inspection process across Metro Manila. For both privately and publicly funded projects, many Philippine construction companies attempt to save money by circumventing and manipulating building code compliance processes and other critical provisions. Therefore, many structures have not undergone structural evaluation and vulnerability assessment to strong tremors.

• Evacuation areas/Disaster management: Recreation zones and open spaces such as parks, schools, sports arenas and even cemeteries that are critical to providing relief during earthquakes now comprise less than one percent of total land area of cities in Metro Manila.

• Rehabilitation capability: Over the course of the last 15 years, only once have calamity funds covered the costs of damages wrought by natural disasters.

• Telecommunication/Transportation: Submarine fiber optic cables are subject to earthquakes as well as minor seabed shift and even saltwater corrosion. Meantime, the collapse of bridges and flyovers in Metro Manila in the event of a massive earthquake will have a significant impact on business operation continuity as this will cripple Metro Manila traffic movements, preventing employees from reaching places of employment or returning home afterward.

• Utilities: In the event of a destructive earthquake in Metro Manila, electricity poles are likely to topple, cutting power supply across the city.

A la Port au Prince

The PSA warned that in the aftermath of a major earthquake event, Metro Manila would more closely resemble Port au Prince in Haiti than the cities recently affected by the earthquake in central Chile and China.

It cautioned that it would take several months, if not years, to rehabilitate the metropolis, even citing current estimates that it will take up to 20 years for Port au Prince to return to its pre-earthquake socio-economic levels.

The PSA provides security consulting, crisis management, business intelligence, investigations and background screening services.

It specializes in Asian risk, with offices in Hong Kong, Manila, Shanghai, Beijing, Bangkok, Milwaukee and Sydney.

PSA’s clients include financial institutions, insurance companies, professional service firms, multinational corporations, embassies, government agencies, international organizations and individuals.

The PSA staff has extensive experience in the region, with professional backgrounds in government intelligence, military special operations and corporate security, as well as journalism, marketing, and management consulting.