After dry spell, heavy rains seen

BAGUIO CITY , Philippines  – After the drought comes the heavy rain.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has reported here that the drought that wilted crops, dried up rivers and affected electricity supply has weakened, and La Niña is expected from July to September.

“Since the end of February, sub-surface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) have decreased steadily in association with the expansion and strengthening of below-average temperatures at depth,” a diagnostic discussion report from the center said.

It added “enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, while suppressed convection strengthened and expanded over the tropical Pacific, south of the equator.”

“The low-level equatorial trade winds remained near-average, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the central Pacific during much of April,” it said.

Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño, the center reported.

“El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is accordingly a climate pattern, which occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years, but over a period that varies from three to seven years, and is therefore widely and significantly known as quasi-periodic,” the report said.

Most of the hydroelectric dams, like the 250-megawatt Angat Dam in Bulacan and the 360-megawatt Magat Dam in Isabela, halted operations when their water levels dropped below the critical line and almost totally dried up.

Mindanao is the hardest hit by the power shortage, with rotating blackouts lasting from three to five hours each time. Luzon suffered less power outages.

The El Niño phenomenon is best known for its association with floods, droughts, and other weather disturbances in many regions of the world.

Developing countries, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean and dependent on agriculture and fishing, are most likely to be affected, the report said.