3 of 10 Pinoys expect better lives in next 12 months - SWS

MANILA, Philippines - Three out of 10 Filipino adults expect their lives to improve this year, according to a recent survey by the Social Weather Stations Inc. (SWS).

In the fourth quarter survey from Dec. 5 to 10, 33 percent of the respondents were “optimists” who expected their quality of life to improve in the next 12 months as against only 12 percent of the “pessimists” expecting their lives to get worse.

The SWS survey showed a net personal optimism (NPO) score of 21. Net optimism is the difference in the percentage of optimists over pessimists.

The SWS said the latest NPO is similar to the 24 in September 2009, and a recovery from levels ranging from 17 to -6 in March 2008 to June 2009.

In NPO, scores ranging from 20 to 29 are classified as “high” since they are higher than what is normally expected, or are above the category containing the median and mode (classified as “fair,” ranging from +10 to +19), the SWS explained.

The survey also found Filipinos equally divided over the country’s economic prospects.

Twenty-three percent of Filipinos were optimistic that the economy would get better while 23 percent expressed pessimism that it would get worse.

On the issue of change in Personal Quality of Life compared to 12 months ago, 42 percent said their lives had worsened (Losers), and 20 percent said it got better (Gainers), for a net Gainers-Losers score of -22, similar to the score of -24 in September 2009.

In the case of Economic Optimism and Gainers-Losers trends, the most common answers are in the “low” and “very low” categories. The term “fair” is assigned to the negative category of -9 to zero since it is above what is normally expected.

The term “mediocre” is then assigned to the category between “fair” and “low,” the SWS explained.

Since 2006, the net Gainers-Losers has been at low to very low levels in 13 out of 18 SWS surveys, the survey firm said.

The SWS indicators of future economic trends are the people’s perceived directions of forthcoming change in their Personal Quality of Life and the economy as a whole.

The indicator of the past economic trend is the people’s perceived direction of change in their Personal Quality of Life from twelve months ago to the present.

The SWS said Net Personal Optimism has been in a generally upward trend in all areas and classes over the past two years.

Net Personal Optimism in Metro Manila rose to +22 in June, +31 in September, and +25 in December 2009, compared to the levels ranging from +15 to +14 in December 2008 to February 2009.

In Luzon, Net Personal Optimism has ranged from +8 to +1 in June to September 2008 before it rose to levels ranging from +25 to +17 in December 2008 to December 2009.

The NPO in the Visayas region steadily increased from +11 in June, +14 in September, to +21 in December 2009. It used to range from +11 to -17 in December 2007 to February 2009.

But in Mindanao, the NPO fell from +27 in September 2009 to +14 in December 2009, similar to the levels ranging from +17 to +11 in September 2008 to June 2009.

In the economic class ABC, the NPO rose to +23 in September and +26 in December 2009, after ranging from +19 to +14 in December 2008 to June 2009.

The NPO in class D, however, improved to +24 in September and +21 in December 2009, after ranging from +19 to +14 in December 2008 to June 2009.

It has been mostly “fair” in class E from September 2008 to June 2009, falling to +5 only in February 2009. It increased to +25 in September before plunging down to +19 in December 2009.

Meanwhile, the SWS said the Net Economic Optimism (NEO) has been at fair levels over the past two quarters in all areas and classes, improving from the mostly mediocre levels of February to June 2009.

In Metro Manila, the NEO rose to +5 in September and +6 in December 2009, from -18 in February and -12 in June 2009.

It went to +2 in September and +3 in December 2009 in Luzon, from -14 in February and -10 in June 2009.

In the Visayas region, the NEO improved to -1 in September from -6 in December, from -33 in February and -11 in June 2009.

The NEO in Mindanao has ranged from +3 to -2 since June 2009, after ranging from -13 to -18 in September 2008 to February 2009.

In class ABC, it improved to +4 in September and -5 in December 2009, after ranging from -17 to -45 in December 2007 to June 2009.

Since June 2009, the NEO has ranged from -1 to -9 in class D, improving from levels ranging from -18 to -41 in December 2007 to February 2009.

In class E, the NEO ranged from +8 to -5 since June 2009, which was better than the levels ranging from -8 to -34 in December 2007 to February 2009.

The SWS said the Net Gainers-Losers eased in some areas but remained low across the board.

In Metro Manila and the Visayas, it improved from -31 in September to -25 in December 2009.

It eased slightly from -22 to -20 in Luzon, and slightly worsened from -18 to -21 in Mindanao.

The Net Gainers-Losers improved slightly from -25 to -20 in class D.

But it worsened from -11 to -16 in class ABC, while it barely changed from -25 to -26 in class E.

The non-commissioned survey used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 adults divided into random samples of 300 in Metro Manila and 600 each in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Sampling error margins of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for national percentages, plus or minus six percentage points for Metro Manila and plus or minus four percentage points for Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao were applied in the survey.