Pulse Asia: Noynoy 37%, Villar 35%, Erap 12%

MANILA, Philippines - With the presidential elections three months away, Senators Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. are now “statistically tied” in a survey released by Pulse Asia yesterday.

Pulse Asia’s January 2010 pre-election survey for national elective positions showed Aquino and Villar received “virtually the same voter preferences” at 37 percent and 35 percent, respectively.

Applying the margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, Aquino’s rating could be considered the same as Villar’s, Pulse Asia said.

The non-commissioned survey, conducted from Jan. 22 to 26, used face-to-face interviews of 1,800 adult respondents.

The only other presidential candidate who received a double-digit preference is former President Joseph Estrada with 12 percent.

Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro, of Lakas-Kampi-CMD garnered five percent.

Other candidates who registered less than five percent are Eddie Villanueva and Sen. Richard Gordon tied at two percent; Sen. Jamby Madrigal at 0.5 percent; JC delos Reyes (0.3 percent); Vetallano Acosta (0.2 percent); environmentalist Nicanor Perlas (0.05 percent).

In the same survey, six percent of respondents, or less than one in every 10 Filipino voters, are still undecided over their choice of presidential candidate at the time the survey was conducted.

The survey revealed Aquino, of the Liberal Party (LP), topped the survey in the National Capital Region at 38 percent while 24 percent preferred Villar, the Nacionalista Party’s bet.

The two front-runners registered virtually the same preference in Luzon with Aquino at 37 percent and Villar with 36 percent.

In the Visayas region, Aquino posted 41 percent while Villar had 38 percent.

Villar topped Mindanao at 36 percent with Aquino trailing at 33 percent.

Across socio-demographic groups and taking the error margins for the subgroups into account, Aquino dominated the Class D at 40 percent and among the elderly aged 65 years and over at 42 percent.

On the other hand, Villar took the lead from Aquino in the 25-34 age group at 42 percent.

“Voter preferences for the two leading candidates are essentially the same across the other socioeconomic classes and age groups,” Pulse Asia said.

Compared to the December 2009 survey, Pulse Asia said support for Villar had improved by 12 percentage points, while preference for Aquino and Estrada dropped by eight and seven percentage points, respectively.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes attributed Villar’s gain of 12 percentage points to his “more sustained” marketing campaign.

Holmes said the sustained ad campaign made a big impact on the public’s perception of Villar.

On the other hand, voter preferences for the other presidential candidates made no significant changes between the two survey periods, Pulse Asia said.

The survey said 24 percent of respondents preferred a candidate unstained by corruption and with a clean record of public service. The same percentage of respondents wanted a candidate with preference for the poor.

Other reasons cited for preferring a candidate pertain to his ability and capability at 16 percent, 11 percent wanted a generous candidate, being a good person (nine percent) and experience in governance (six percent).

Aquino, son of democracy icon former President Corazon “Cory” Aquino, and Villar, Tondo-born billionaire lawmaker, have both promised to fight corruption, which is seen as the top political issue in the election this year.

Pulling away

In the vice presidential race, Sen. Manuel Roxas II (LP) continued to pull away with a big margin at 47 percent.

Sen. Loren Legarda, of the Nationalist People’s Coalition and running mate of Villar, came at second place with 28 percent, followed by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (PDP Laban) with 13 percent.

The other vice-presidential candidates garnered at most two percent voter preference, while seven percent of the respondents remained undecided.

Pulse Asia said Roxas led the race in Luzon, including Metro Manila, and the Visayas region.

But the voter preferences for the two leading contenders - Roxas and Legarda - were essentially tied across the Mindanao areas surveyed.

As for the socio-demographic groupings, Pulse Asia said Roxas enjoys sizeable leads among the upper socio-economic classes ABC (54 percent) and D (49 percent) and across various age groups.

But preferences for Roxas and Legarda were essentially tied among Class E voters.

Among the vice-presidential candidates, Pulse Asia said only Roxas and Legarda registered significant movements in voter preference between the December 2009 and January 2010 surveys.

Roxas posted an increase of eight percentage points while Legarda declined nine percent. –With Marvin Sy, Aurea Calica, Christina Mendez